Friday, October 30, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 10-30-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Staying in Range after BoJ Stands Pat

Some volatility is seen in the Japanese yen in Asian session today but it remains stuck this week's range. BoJ kept monetary policies unchanged today despite some speculations of additional stimulus. Interest rate was held near zero while the annual target for monetary base expansion was kept at JPY 80T. Board member Takahide Kiuchi dissented on the decision again and called for a cut in monetary base expansion target to JPY 45T. BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted in that recovery in Japan remained moderate in spite of slowdown in emerging markets. Meanwhile, he remained optimistic that growth will pick up and exceed potential in fiscal 2015 and 2016. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to hit the 2% target in second half of fiscal 2016.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.73; (P) 120.96; (R1) 121.33; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. The failure to take out 121.62 resistance suggests that recent sideway consolidation would continue. On the upside, break of 121.62 will extend the rebound from 116.13 towards 125.27/85 resistance zone. Below 118.05 will target 116.13 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Sep -5.70% -4.90% -5.30%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Sep 3.40% 3.40% 3.40%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Sep -0.40% 1.20% 2.90%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Sep -0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Oct -0.20% -0.20% -0.20%
0:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Oct 10.5 -18.9
0:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Oct 2 4 3
0:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q3 0.90% 0.30%
0:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q3 0.80% 1.10%
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Sep 2.60% 6.50% 8.80%
8:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Oct 100.1 100.4
9:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate Sep 11.90% 11.90%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Sep 11.00% 11.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Oct 0.00% -0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y (OCT A) 0.90% 0.90%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q3 0.60% 0.20%
12:30 USD Personal Income Sep 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Sep 0.20% 0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Sep -0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Sep 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Sep 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Sep 1.30%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Aug 0.10% 0.30%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Oct 49.7 48.7
14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Oct F 92.6 92.1
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered but offers are still noted at 1.0980, 1.1000 and 1.1020-25, selling interest is tipped at 1.1050, 1.1075-80 and 1.1100. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0915-20, 1.0900 and 1.0885, buy orders are expected at 1.0850, 1.0830 and 1.0800, buying interest should emerge around 1.0785, 1.0765 and 1.0750.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7250

As the single currency fell again after meeting renewed selling interest at 0.7250 yesterday, adding credence to our bearish view that the decline from 0.7493 (wave v top) is still in progress and may extend weakness to 0.7120-25, however, loss of near term momentum should limit downside to 0.7100 and reckon 0.7070 would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.3195

Although the greenback rebounded after finding support at 1.3090, as 1.3238 has capped upside and the pair has retreated, retaining our view that further consolidation below yesterday's high of 1.3280 would be seen and break of said support at 1.3090 would signal top has been formed there, bring at least a retracement of recent rise to support at 1.3040.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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