Saturday, October 17, 2015

Action Insight Weekly Report 10-17-15

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Policy Speculations Drove Aussie, Euro and Dollar Lower

Speculations on interest rates and monetary policy were the main drivers in the forex markets last week. Aussie and Euro were the two weakest major currencies. There were talk that RBA would eventually cut the benchmark rate to counter the recent move by banks that lifted interest rates. Also, RBA noted in a report there was some cool down in the property markets. Eurozone inflation turned negative again, intensifying the talk the ECB needs to extend or even expand the quantitative easing program eventually. Meanwhile, dollar closely followed as one of the weakest and market pare back bets on 2015 rate hike by Fed. As of Friday, fed fund futures were only pricing in 30% chance of a December hike. Indeed, the odds for rate hike by March is only 52%, notably lower than 62% chance priced in a month ago.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3456 extended last week and hit 1.2834 key support level. Further decline is expected this week as long as 1.3079 resistance holds. As noted before, the medium term trend is possibly reversing. Break of 1.2834 will affirm this bearish case and target next key support level at 1.1919. Nonetheless above 1.3079 will turn focus back to 1.3456 high instead.

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