Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 10-8-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Eyes on BoE and FOMC Minutes

BoE monetary policy decisions and FOMC minutes are the two main focuses today. BoE is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchase target at GBP 375b. A major focus is on the vote split where markets expected Ian McCafferty to continue to dissent on rate decision and vote for a hike. Sterling has been under some pressure since July on speculations that recent market turmoil would delay BoE's rate hike deep into mid next year. But the pound is supported this week on a couple of factors including improving risk market sentiments, better than expected data. Also, in the latest update, IMF raised UK growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4% to 2.5% and kept that for 2016 at 2.2%. That compared to the backdrop of lowering global growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.1% in 2015 and from 3.8% to 3.6% in 2016. ECB monetary policy meeting accounts will also be watched in European session.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.71; (P) 120.03; (R1) 120.32; More...

The sideway consolidation continues in USD/JPY as it stays bounded in range of 118.58/121.62. On the upside, break of 121.62 will extend the rebound from 116.13 and target 125.27/85 resistance zone. We'd cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 118.58 will turn focus back to 116.13 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Sep 44% 56% 53%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Aug -5.70% 3.10% -3.60%
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Aug 1.59T 1.28T 1.32T
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Sep 48.6 49.3
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Sep 3.40% 3.30%
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Aug 20.2B 22.8B
11:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 375b 375b
11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 1--0--8 1--0--8
11:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9
11:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Sep 216.9k
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Aug 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 3) 274K 277K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 98B
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.1290, offers are noted at 1.1280-85 and 1.1300, sell orders are reported at 1.1330 and 1.1350, selling interest is tipped at 1.1365, 1.1380 and 1.1400. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1220, 1.1200 and 1.1180-85, buy orders are expected at 1.1155-60 and 1.1135, buying interest should emerge around 1.1120-25 and 1.1100 (stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7395

The single currency slipped below indicated support at 0.7355, suggesting top has possibly been formed at 0.7443 last week and consolidation with downside bias is seen for retracement of recent rise towards support at 0.7303, break there would add credence to this view, bring correction to 0.7270-75 first.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

Although the greenback broke below indicated support at 1.3013 and signal a temporary top has been formed at 1.3457 (tentatively wave v top), loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2950 and reckon 1.2900 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place soon.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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