Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 10-7-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: IMF Downgraded Global Growth Forecast, Dollar and Yen Soft

US equities closed mixed overnight as this week's strong rebound is starting to lose momentum. DJIA closed 13.76 pts, or 0.08%, higher at 16790.19. S&P 500 dropped -7.13 pts or -0.36% to close at 1979.92. Note that both are starting to face some resistance 55 days EMA, at 16790 and 1992.1 respectively. And there is risk of a deeper pull back today. Asian equities are trading flat at the time of writing. Crude oil surges to as high as 49.38 so far today and is breaking out from recent sideway consolidations. Further strength in crude oil would likely drag USD/CAD down through 1.3011 support to indicate trend reversal. In the currency markets, dollar and yen remain the weakest major currencies this week, overwhelmed by the strength in commodity currencies. BoJ left monetary policies unchanged as widely expected.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2994; (P) 1.3064; (R1) 1.3102; More...

No change in USD/CAD's outlook. The risk of trend reversal in USD/CAD is increasing as the pair failed a long term retracement level at 1.3469 and there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Focus is on 1.3011 support and break will at least bring deeper fall back to 1.2834 resistance turned support. Meanwhile, on the upside, firm break of 1.3456 resistance is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise risk will stay on the downside for another fall.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep -1.90% -1.40%
5:00 JPY Leading Index Aug P 103.4 105
6:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Aug 0.30% 0.70%
7:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Sep 540.4b
8:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Aug 0.20% -0.40%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Aug 1.20% 0.80%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Aug 0.30% -0.80%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug -0.10% -0.50%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Aug -0.60%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Sep 0.50%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.0M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered after finding support just above 1.1170 and offers at 1.1225-30 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.1250, 1.1265 and 1.1280, selling interest is tipped at 1.1300, 1.1330 and 1.1350. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1200-05, 1.1180-85 and 1.1155-60, buy orders are expected at 1.1135 and 1.1120, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stand aside

The single currency traded narrowly after rising to 0.7443 late last week, retaining our view that further consolidation below this level would bee seen and pullback to 0.7355 support cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal top has possibly been formed there, bring weakness to 0.7336 support but only a drop below 0.7303 level would provide confirmation

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

Recent retreat from 1.3457 top has kept the greenback under pressure, suggesting top has possibly been formed there (tentatively wave v top) and downside risk remains for this fall to bring retracement of recent upmove, hence weakness to 1.3050, then towards 1.3013 support is likely, however, reckon psychological level at 1.3000 would hold on first testing

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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