Friday, October 9, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-9-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Loonie Rally Extends on Job Data and Oil

Canadian dollar extends rally today with help of strength in crude oil and employment data. WTI crude oil took out 50 handle today and reached as high as 50.92 so far. Meanwhile, released from Canada, employment grew 12.1k in September versus expectation of 10.0k. Unemployment rate rose to 7.1% as participation rate was unchanged at 65.9%. Released from US, import price index dropped -0.1% mom in September versus expectation of -0.5% mom. Released earlier, UK trade deficit came in wider than expected at GBP -11.1b in August. Australia home loans rose 2.9% in August.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2971; (P) 1.3022; (R1) 1.3066; More...

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3456 continues today and reaches as low as 1.2900 so far. As noted before, prior break of 1.3011 support indicates that a medium term top is possibly in place at 1.3456. That's supported by strong resistance from a long term retracement level at 1.3469 and there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Further fall should be seen to 1.2834 resistance turned support first. Decisive break there will target next key support level at 1.1919. On the upside, above 1.3073 minor resistance will bring recovery but upside should be limited well below 1.3456 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Home Loans Aug 2.90% 5.10% 0.30% -0.30%
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Aug -11.1B -10.0B -11.1B -12.2B
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Sep 12.1K 10K 12.0k
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Sep 7.10% 6.90% 7.00%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Sep -0.10% -0.50% -1.80%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Aug 0.1% 0.00% -0.10%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher to 1.1379 before easing in NY morning, offers at 1.1350 and 1.1365 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.1380 and 1.1400, selling interest is tipped at 1.1430 and further out at 1.1450. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.1315, 1.1300 and 1.1285, buy orders are expected at 1.1270, 1.1250 and 1.1235, buying interest should emerge around 1.1220 and 1.1200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5270

As the British pound has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 1.5371, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.5295-00 is likely, however, reckon 1.5259-61 (current level of the lower Kumo and previous support) would contain downside, bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.5371 would extend the rise from 1.5107 low towards 1.5405-10

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Target met and stand aside

Euro's intra-day anticipated rally to 1.1379 (our long position entered at 1.1275 met target at 1.1375 with 100 points profit) and near term bullishness remains for the erratic rise from 1.1105 low to extend further gain towards previous support at 1.1390 (now resistance), however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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