Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-7-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Commodity Currencies Stay Strong on Global Stock Rally

Commodity currencies continue to ride on rally in global equities markets and extends this week's rise. At the time of writing, DAX is up 1.2% while CAC and FTSE are trading up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. US futures also point to higher open. Canadian dollar is additional supported by strength in crude oil and shrugged off weak housing data. Canadian building permits dropped -3.7% mom in August. USD/CAD's break of 1.3011 support is taken as a sign of larger trend reversal. Meanwhile, yen remains the weakest major currency this week on risk appetite and dollar followed closely. Sterling on the other hand, strengthens on strong economic data.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2994; (P) 1.3064; (R1) 1.3102; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.3011 support indicates that a medium term top is possibly in place at 1.3456. That's supported by strong resistance from d a long term retracement level at 1.3469 and there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Near term outlook is turned bearish for 1.2834 resistance turned support first. Decisive break there will target next key support level at 1.1919. On the upside, above 1.3133 will turn bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited well below 1.3456 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep -1.90% -1.40%
05:00 JPY Leading Index Aug P 103.5 103.4 105
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Aug -1.20% 0.30% 0.70%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Sep 542B 540.4B
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Aug 0.50% 0.20% -0.40% -0.70%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Aug 1.90% 1.20% 0.80% 0.70%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Aug 1.00% 0.30% -0.80% -0.30%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug -0.80% -0.10% -0.50% -1.20%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Aug -3.70% -0.60%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Sep 0.5% 0.50%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.1M 4.0M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.1290, offers are noted at 1.1280-85 and 1.1300, sell orders are reported at 1.1330 and 1.1350, selling interest is tipped at 1.1365, 1.1380 and 1.1400. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1220, 1.1200 and 1.1180-85, buy orders are expected at 1.1155-60 and 1.1135, buying interest should emerge around 1.1120-25 and 1.1100 (stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.9720

Yesterday's selloff below support at 0.9686 signals the rebound from 0.9645 (last week's low) has ended at 0.9768 and test of this level would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and extend the fall from 0.9844 top to 0.9620, then towards 0.9600 but oversold condition should limit downside to 0.9570, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5250

As cable's rise has gathered momentum after breaking resistance at 1.5245 (now support), adding credence to our view that low has been formed at 1.5107 last week and bullishness remains for the rebound from there to bring retracement of recent decline to 1.5337-41 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5568-1.5107 and previous support), however, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 1.5383

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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