Sunday, October 11, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 10-12-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Staying Soft as Fed Fischer Said Rate Hike an Expectation, Not Commitment

Dollar is trading with a soft tone as markets start the week quietly. Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer said over the week end that its "an expectation" that Fed will hike interest rate this year, "not a commitment". He emphasized that "both the timing of the first rate increase and any subsequent adjustments to the federal funds rate target will depend critically on future developments in the economy". And, there are still "considerable uncertainties" around the economic outlook, including recent drop in job growth. Nonetheless, he talked down the impact of the international developments including China as "we do not currently anticipate that the effects of these recent developments on the US economy will prove to be large enough to have a significant effect on the path for policy."

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7275; (P) 0.7309; (R1) 0.7371; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for further recovery. But price actions from 0.6905 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Hence, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to complete the consolidation. Below 0.7164 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6905 low. However, sustained break of 0.7385 will put 0.7625 key resistance in focus.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
12:10 USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks
14:30 USD Fed's Evans Speaks
17:20 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
20:30 USD Fed's Brainard Speaks
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher to 1.1379 before easing in NY morning, offers at 1.1350 and 1.1365 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.1380 and 1.1400, selling interest is tipped at 1.1430 and further out at 1.1450. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.1315, 1.1300 and 1.1285, buy orders are expected at 1.1270, 1.1250 and 1.1235, buying interest should emerge around 1.1220 and 1.1200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold short entered at 0.7400

As the single currency has rebounded after holding above support at 0.7333 (this week's low), suggesting caution on our short position entered at 0.7400 and indicated resistance at 0.7443 needs to hold to retain prospect of another retreat, below 0.7365-70 would bring another test of said support at 0.7333, once this level is penetrated, this would signal top has been formed at 0.7443 last week

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

As the greenback has remained under pressure after recent selloff from 1.3457 top (tentatively wave v peak), adding credence to our view that top has been formed there and downside risk remains for this fall to extend weakness to 1.2900, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 1.2862, reckon 1.2800-10 would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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