Sunday, March 9, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-10-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Weak China Export Prompted Selling in Equities and Aussie

The shockingly weak China trade data released over the weekend sent Asian equities broadly lower as the week starts. Aussie also tumbled sharply on its close trade tie with China. Trade balance unexpectedly reported a USD -23b deficit in February versus expectation of USD 13b surplus. Exports were very weak and contracted -18.1% yoy overall. Looking at the details, exports to US dropped -11.3% yoy, EU dropped -14.4% yoy, Japan dropped -11.0% yoy, ASEAN dropped -15.0% yoy. Import rose 10.1% yoy during the month. While some decline in export was expected in February due to lunar new year, the export performance was much weaker than generally expected. It's speculated that the weak global demand for Chinese products have triggered concerns to the government and contributed to the recent sharp Yuan depreciation.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9041; (P) 0.9086; (R1) 0.9112; More...

AUD/USD opens the week sharply lower and touching of 0.9032 minor support turns intraday bias neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen but we're holding on to the view that the larger down trend might have bottomed at 0.8659 and be reversing. Hence, we'd expect downside to be contained above 0.8890 support and bring resumption of the rise from 0.8659. Above 0.9132 will turn bias back to the upside for 100% projection projection of 0.86590 to 0.9080 from 0.8890 at 0.9311. However, break of 0.8890 will dampen our bullish view and turn focus back to 0.8659 low instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Manufacturing Activity Q4 6.30% 4.70% 6.20%
23:50 JPY Current Account Total (JPY) Jan -0.59T -0.59T -0.20T 0.07T
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
23:50 JPY GDP Annualized Q4 F 0.70% 0.90% 1.00%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 F -0.30% -0.40% -0.40%
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Feb 54.3 54.7
8:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jan 2.70% 2.30%
9:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Mar 14.3 13.3
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Feb 190K 180.2K
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has retreated quite sharply from high around 1.3913 on dollar's broad-based strength after the release of higher-than-expected NFP, bids at 1.3855-60 were filled and mixture of bids and stops at 1.3850 is in focus, however, buy orders are still noted from 1.3830 down to 1.3800, more buying interest is located at 1.3780 and 1.3750, fresh demand is tipped at 1.3720 and 1.3695-00. On the upside, some offers are reported at 1.3875 and 1.3895-00 with some stops placed above 1.3915-20, sell orders are expected at 13935 and 1.3950, selling interest is expected to emerge around 1.3985 and 1.4000 with more stops placed above barrier at 1.4000.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8230

Despite yesterday's fall to 0.8204, as the single currency has finally staged the anticipated rebound after holding above said support, retaining our near term bullishness for the bounce from 0.8158 low to bring retracement of recent decline to resistance at 0.8300 and possibly 0.8325-30

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3800

Euro's intra-day rally above previous resistance at 1.3825 on soft US data and Draghi suggests early upmove has resumed and a retest of 1.3894 resistance would be seen, break there would confirm and extend gain to 1.3910-20, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3940-50 and bring correction later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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