Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-19-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Recovers after BoE Minutes, USD/CAD Breaking Out ahead of FOMC

Sterling and Loonie are the major movers in an otherwise quiet day. Despite brief weakness earlier this week, the pound staged a recovery against dollar and euro after slightly better than expected job data. Meanwhile, sterling was also lifted by BoE minutes, which acknowledged that the exchange rate could appreciate further. The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, was weak since yesterday's speech from BoC governor Poloz. Development in USD/CAD, which breached 1.1194 resistance, argues that it's probably breaking out from recent converging range since later January. Dollar is stuck in tight range as markets await FOMC rate decision.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1059; (P) 1.1102; (R1) 1.1179; More...

USD/CAD rises to as high as 1.1195 so far today and the breach of 1.1194 resistance argues that the consolidation pattern from 1.1223 is possibly finished already. And,, the larger up trend 0.9633 is resuming. intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 1.1223 first. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.0181 to 1.1223 from 1.1024 at 1.1668, which is close to the next long term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 1.1121 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the consolidation from 1.1223 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q4 -1.43B -1.44B -4.78B -4.88B
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb -0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Feb -1.13T -0.89T -1.82T -1.76T
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jan 1.00% 1.20% -0.10%
09:30 GBP Bank of England Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Feb -34.6K -25.0K -27.6K -33.9K
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Feb 3.50% 3.50% 3.60%
09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Jan 7.20% 7.20% 7.20%
10:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Mar 19 28.7
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jan 0.80% 1.00% -1.40%
12:30 USD Current Account Balance Q4 -81B -$88.0B -$94.8B
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 6180K
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:30 USD Fed Press Conference
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to trade narrowly as traders await FOMC later today, offers are still noted from 1.3935 up to 1.3950-65, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3975 (barrier) and defensive offers are tipped ahead of sizeable barrier at 1.4000 with more stops placed above there, more sell orders are tipped at 1.4020 and 1.4050. On the downside, bids are still noted at 1.3900 and 1.3870-75 and 1.3860, more buying interest is located at 1.3840-45 (stops below 1.3830) and further out at 1.3800-10, mixture of bids and stops is reported at 1.3780-90.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell at 102.05

As indicated support at 101.20-21 has continued to hold, retaining our view that further consolidation is in store and another bounce to the upper Kumo (now at 101.75) cannot be ruled out, however, 102.05-10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 103.43-101.21) should limit upside and bring another decline. A break of said support would extend the decline from 103.76 to 100.95-00

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Hold short entered at 141.50

Although the single currency recovered after falling to 140.74 yesterday, as long as resistance at 141.98 (Monday's high) holds, bearishness remains for another decline, a break of support at 140.45 would signal decline from 143.79 (tentatively wave c of B) has resumed for weakness to 140.00-10, however, break of support at 139.15 is needed to retain bearishness and extend the fall from 143.79 to previous support at 138.79

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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