Friday, March 14, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-14-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Aversion Continues With Eyes on Crimea Vote on Sunday

Risk aversion is the main theme in the markets today as European equities opened and stayed in red, following the sharp selloff in Asia. US futures are pointing to mixed open as market could try to digest yesterday's steep losses. Nonetheless, there wouldn't be much chance for a recovery in risk sentiments before the week closes. Situation in Crimea over the weekend will be closely watched by all market participants as Europe is facing the biggest geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold War. In the currency markets, yen surged broadly this week and is maintaining gains into US session. While European majors pared back some of their gains against the greenback, the dollar index is maintaining a near term bearish bias for 79.0 level. Gold extended recent rally and is trading above 1370 for the moment and could head further north to 1400 should the situation in Crimea worsen after the crucial referendum.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.27; (P) 102.07; (R1) 102.60; More...

USD/JPY's sharp fall continues into US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 101.19 support. Break will indicate that the whole decline from 105.41 is likely resumption. Further break of 100.75 will target 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 103.75 at 99.09. Also, decisive break of 100.61 key support will have larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 101.87 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Feb 56.2 56.2 56.3
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan F 3.80% 4.00% 4.00%
07:00 EUR German CPI M/M Feb F 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
07:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Feb F 1.20% 1.20% 1.20%
08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Feb -0.40% 0.00% 0.00%
08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Feb -0.80% -0.40% -0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Feb -0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Feb 0.90% 1.20% 1.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Feb -0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Feb 1.10% 1.40% 1.30%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar P 81.6 81.6
 
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped quite sharply after rising to 28-month high of 1.3967 yesterday in part due to solid US data and risk aversion, bids at 1.3920, 1.3900, 1.3885 and 1.3850-60 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.3840 (stops below 1.3830) and further out at 1.3780-90. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3890-00 and in good size at 1.3940-50, mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.3965-70, more sell orders are located at 1.3985-1.4000 region with more stops placed above sizeable barrier at 1.4000. Option expires today include: 1.3755, 1.3825, 1.3845, 1.3900, 1.3910, 1.3915 and 1.3990.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8730

Dollar's rebound after falling to 0.8699 yesterday suggests a temporary low is formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline, above 0.8770-75 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8896-0.8699) would add credence to this view, bring further gain to 0.8805 and later towards 0.8816-21 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) but 0.8850 is likely to hold on first testing.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3930

Despite yesterday's anticipated resumption of recent upmove to 1.3967, the subsequent selloff in part due to cross-selling in euro suggests top is formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen test of 1.3834 support (this week's low), break there would add credence to this view and bring retracement of early upmove to 1.3800, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below previous resistance at 1.3749

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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