Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-12-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Aversion Dominates, RBNZ to Hike

Risk aversion is dominating the markets today over the uncertainties in Ukraine as well as concerns on slowing growth in China. Major European indices are staying in red, losing over -1% at the time of writing, following broad based decline in Asian equities. US stocks futures also point to lower open. In the currency markets, yen extends this week's recovery against other major currencies. Meanwhile, fresh buying is seen in European majors against the dollar ahead of US open. Eyes will be on Crimea as the parliament has called for a referendum on March 16 to decide if they should leave Ukraine and join Russia.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8760; (P) 0.8776; (R1) 0.8793; More...

USD/CHF's decline resumes by taking out 0.8755 temporary low and reaches as low as 0.8742 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 0.9156 is expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 0.9751 to 0.8799 from 0.9156 at 0.8568 next. On the upside, above 0.8788 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8895 resistance holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar -0.70% -3.00%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan 0.90% 0.70% -0.40% -0.50%
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 12.5 11.3 9.7
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb 1.80% 2.20% 2.40% 2.50%
0:30 AUD Home Loans Jan 0.00% 0.80% -1.90% -3.30%
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Feb 38.3 40.3 40.5
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan -0.20% 0.40% -0.70% -0.40%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M
18:00 USD USD Monthly Budget Statement Feb -223.2B -10.4B
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.50%
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found renewed buying interest above 1.3840 and has rebounded in European session, offers at 1.3875-1.3900 area and stops above 1.3900 were tripped, however, sell orders are still seen at 1.3905-15 (more stops above 1.3920), selling interest is tipped around 1.3940-50 and further out at 1.3985-1.4000 region with more stops placed above barrier at 1.4000. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3850-60 and at 1.3835-40 (stops below 1.3830), buy orders are still noted at 1.3810-20, more buying interest is reported at 1.3790-00 and further out at 1.3740-50 (more stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3870

As the single currency has rebounded after holding above indicated support at 1.3834 (yesterday's low), retaining our bullish view that correction from 1.3915 has ended and retest of this level would be seen, break there would extend recent upmove to 1.3940-50 but price should falter well below psychological resistance at 1.4000

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.20

As the greenback has fallen again after intra-day initial brief recovery, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the decline from last week's high of 103.76 to bring another corrective fall to 102.45-48 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 101.20-103.76 and Friday's low), however, reckon downside would be limited to 102.15-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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