Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-12-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Jumps on Weak Sentiments, Aussie Lower

The Japanese yen extends this week's recovery as stocks retreated on profit taking. DOW ended yesterday -67.43 pts lower while S&P 500 also lost -9.54 pts. Risk aversion intensified in Asian session on continuous concern over slowing growth in China. Nikkei is losing -330 pts, or -2.2%, while HK HSI is losing -350 pts, or -1.6% at the time of writing. The Australian dollar overtook Sterling as the weakest currency this week as pressured by weak than expected housing data. In addition, the Aussie was weighed down by selling against Kiwi as RBNZ is expected to hike rates tomorrow. European majors are relatively steady in tight range against the greenback.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6590; (P) 1.6621; (R1) 1.6646; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. The consolidation from 1.6822 is still in progress and deeper fall could be seen to 1.6583 support and below. Though, we'd expect strong support at 50% retracement of 1.6251 to 1.6822 at 1.6537 to contain downside to complete the consolidation and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.6652 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 1.6785 will likely extend larger rally from 1.4813 through 1.6822 towards 1.7043 key resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar -0.70% -3.00%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan 0.90% 0.70% -0.40% -0.50%
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 12.5 11.3 9.7
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb 1.80% 2.20% 2.40% 2.50%
0:30 AUD Home Loans Jan 0.00% 0.80% -1.90% -3.30%
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Feb 40.3 40.5
9:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan -8.7B -7.7B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan 0.40% -0.70%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M
18:00 USD USD Monthly Budget Statement Feb -223.2B -10.4B
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.50%
 
Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound also dropped briefly below 1.6600 before recovering in NY opening, bids and stops at 1.6615-20 were tripped but indicated demand remains around 1.6580-90 and further out at 1.6550-60. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.6655-60, 1.6680-85 and 1.6700-10 with some stops placed above 1.6710, combination of offers and stops is located at 1.6740-60 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8280

The single currency has maintained a firm undertone after recent anticipated rise, reinforcing our bullish view that low has been formed at 0.8158, mild upside bias remains for the rise from there to bring at least a retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 0.8350 (last month's high), a sustained breach above this level would justify our mildly bullish count that (a)-(b)-(c) correction from 0.8769 has ended

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1000

Despite intra-day rise to 1.1131 (same level as last week's high), failure to penetrate this level and current retreat suggest consolidation would be seen and initial pullback cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.1040-50 would hold and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from gain to 1.1160, above there would add credence to our view that the decline from 1.1194 has ended at 1.0955

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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