Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-11-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Remains Pressured after BoE Carney

Sterling remains the weakest currency this week so far after BoE governor Carney spoke in the hearing of Treasury select committee today. He noted that spare capacity in UK is at the "upper end" of the range of 1-1.5% or even higher. He also reiterated that when rate hikes comes, the process would be "gradual" and the degree increase would be "limited". That is, he qualified that UK will be "living in extraordinary times a few years down the road". Meanwhile, he referred to Bean's comment yesterday and said it's not unreasonable to "get across a 2-2.5% bank rate over the course of the forecast horizon. Carney also said that unwinding of QE should "should occur after several adjustments in interest rates." In contrast external member of MPC Weale said the amount of spare capacity was overstated and is "something under 1%".

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6596; (P) 1.6668; (R1) 1.6715; More...

The consolidation from 1.6822 is still in progress as GBP/USD extends lower today. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.6583 support and below. But the structure suggests that strong support would be seen at 50% retracement of 1.6251 to 1.6822 at 1.6537 to contain downside and complete the consolidation. On the upside, above 1.6652 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 1.6785 will likely extend larger rally from 1.4813 through 1.6822 towards 1.7043 key resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Feb 4.00% 4.40% 4.40% 4.30%
0:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Feb -1.00% 3.90%
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Feb 7 8 9
3:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb P 26.00% 40.30%
7:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan 17.2B 19.3B 18.5B 18.3B
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jan 0.10% 0.20% 0.40% 0.50%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jan 2.90% 3.00% 1.80% 1.90%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jan 0.40% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan 3.30% 3.30% 1.50% 1.40%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.50% 0.30%
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Feb 0.80%
 
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound remained confined in narrow range after yesterday's selloff. Mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.6615-20, fresh demand should emerge around 1.6580-90 and further out at 1.6550-60. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.6680-85 and 1.6700-10 with some stops placed above 1.6710, combination of offers and stops is located at 1.6740-60 area. Option expires today include: 1.6550, 1.6600 (large), 1.6700 and 1.6750.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6695

Cable's selloff from 1.6786 and yesterday's breach of 1.6641 support signal top has been formed at 1.6786 late last week and consolidation with downside  bias remains for weakness to 1.6600, break there would suggest early rebound from 1.6583 has ended and bring a retest of this support, having said that, a drop below this level is needed to signal another leg of decline from 1.6823 top is underway for further fall to 1.6550.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3820

Near term consolidation below last week's high of 1.3915 is expected to continue and although another corrective fall to 1.3835-40 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3707-1.3915) cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.3811-18 (50% Fibonacci retracement and current level of the lower Kumo) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.3915 would extend recent upmove to 1.3940-50 but price should falter well below psychological resistance at 1.4000

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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