Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-13-14

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Daily Report: Kiwi Surges on RBNZ Hike, Aussie Boosted by Jobs

The New Zealand dollar soars in Asian session today after RBNZ raised OCR by 25bps to 2.75% as widely expected. It's the first developed nation to remove massive monetary stimulus after the financial crisis. RBNZ governor Wheeler sounded hawkish in the accompanying statement. He noted that "inflationary pressures are increasing and are expected to continue" over the next two years. He emphasized the need to contain inflation expectation and raise interest rates "towards a level which they are no longer adding to demand". And, today's rate hike is not a one-off event but the start of a tightening cycle. Wheeler said that "the speed and extent to which the OCR will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures."

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8943; (P) 0.8943; (R1) 0.9012; More...

AUD/USD's rebounded stronger today as the pull back from 0.9132 finished at 0.8923. As it's staying below 0.9132 temporary top, intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. But after all, we'd expect strong support above 0.8890 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 0.9132 will target 100% projection projection of 0.86590 to 0.9080 from 0.8890 at 0.9311. However, break of 0.8890 will dampen our bullish view and turn focus back to 0.8659 low instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jan 13.40% 7.30% -15.70%
0:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar 2.10% 2.30%
0:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Feb 45% 52% 53% 52%
0:30 AUD Employment Change Feb 47.3K 15.3K -3.7K 18.0K
0:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Feb 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
5:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Feb 19.40% 19.60%
5:30 CNY Retail Sales YTD Y/Y Feb 13.50% 13.10%
5:30 CNY Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Feb 9.50% 9.70%
9:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
12:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q4 82.30% 81.70%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jan 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Feb 0.20% -0.40%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Feb 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 7) 334K 323K
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Feb 0.70% 0.10%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jan 0.40% 0.50%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -152B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found renewed buying interest above 1.3840 and has rebounded in European session, offers at 1.3875-1.3900 area and stops above 1.3900 were tripped, however, sell orders are still seen at 1.3905-15 (more stops above 1.3920), selling interest is tipped around 1.3940-50 and further out at 1.3985-1.4000 region with more stops placed above barrier at 1.4000. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3850-60 and at 1.3835-40 (stops below 1.3830), buy orders are still noted at 1.3810-20, more buying interest is reported at 1.3790-00 and further out at 1.3740-50 (more stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8300

Although the single currency has risen again after brief pullback and further gn to 0.8380 is likely, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.8400-10 today, risk from there has increased for correction to 0.8320 but renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.8300 and bring another rise later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1000

As the greenback has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.1072 yesterday, retaining our bullishness for recent upmove to resume after consolidation, above resistance at 1.1160, would add credence to our view that the decline from 1.1194 has ended at 1.0955 and signal upmove has resumed for test of 1.1194, then towards recent high of 1.1224

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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