Friday, March 21, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-21-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Rebounds as Inflation and Retail Sales Beat Expectations

Canadian dollar recovers strong in early US session after upside surprises in economic data. Headline CPI moderated from 1.5% yoy to 1.1% yoy in February, but beat expectation of 0.9% yoy. Core CPI also moderated, from 1.4% yoy to 1.2% yoy, but also beat expectation of 1.1% yoy. Retail sales rose 1.3% mom in January versus expectation of 0.8% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 1.0% mom versus expectation of 0.9% mom. Markets have priced in disappointment after BoC governor Poloz's comments earlier this week. Thus, the stronger than expected set of data today triggered some squaring of short position. USD/CAD drops sharply in response to the release and confirmed temporary topping at 1.1278. We'd see some consolidations ahead.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1222; (P) 1.1250; (R1) 1.1266; More...

USD/CAD drops sharply in early US session and the break of 1.1198 minor support indicates temporary topping at 1.1278. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But we'd expect downside for retreat to be contained well above 1.1024 support and bring another rally. Above 1.1278 will extend the larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0181 to 1.1223 from 1.1024 at 1.1668, which is close to the next long term fibonacci level.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Jan 0.20% 0.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan 25.3B 18.4B 21.3B 20.0B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Feb 7.5B 7.9B -6.4B
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jan 1.30% 0.80% -1.80% -1.90%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jan 1.00% 0.90% -1.40% -1.50%
12:30 CAD CPI M/M Feb 0.80% 0.60% 0.30%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Feb 1.10% 0.90% 1.50%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Feb 0.70% 0.50% 0.20%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Feb 1.20% 1.10% 1.40%
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar A -12.3 -12.7
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded sideway today as price consolidating this week's selloff, offers at 1.3800 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3810 and in good size at 1.3830-50 area with stops building up above 1.3850, more sell orders are located at 1.3880 and 1.3900-15. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.3765 and 1.3745-50 (stops below), fresh buying interest is tipped at 1.3700-10 and further out at 1.3670-80.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8800

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 0.8869 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen, however, downside should be limited to support at 0.8800 (yesterday's low) and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend the rise from 0.8699 (last week's low) for retracement of recent decline to 0.8890-06 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9082-0.8699 and previous resistance)

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6580

Cable's recovery after intra-day brief fall to 1.6476 suggests minor consolidation would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.6550 and possibly resistance at 1.6568 cannot be ruled out, however, price should falter below 1.6600 and bring another decline later, a break of said support would extend recent decline from 1.6823 top to 1.6470 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6252-1.6823) but loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.6445-50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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