Monday, March 10, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-11-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Steady as BoJ Maintained Easing Policies

The Japanese yen remains steady in range in Asian session after BoJ kept monetary policies unchanged. The central bank maintained the pledge to expand monetary base at an annual pace of JPY 60-70T on unanimous vote. Interest rate is held near zero. Regarding the economy, BoJ maintained the outlook and reiterated that "Japan's economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery as a trend, while it will be affected by the front-loaded increase and subsequent decline in demand prior to and after the consumption tax hike." On the optimistic side, it upgraded view on business fixed investment as the pick-up got "increasingly evident". Also, industrial production grew "at a somewhat accelerated pace". However, on the downside, BoJ noted that exports "have recently leveled off more or less", a downgrade from prior assessments of "exports have generally been picking up". Kiuchi proposed that BoJ should only maintain the high degree of easing within two year from April 2013 to prevent it from being overdone, but was voted down.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.31; (P) 172.09; (R1) 172.65; More.....

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 173.57 temporary top is still in progress. Deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 171.24). But downside should be contained well above 168.82 support and bring rally resumption. Above 173.57 will target a test on 174.84 key resistance next. However, break of 168.82 will suggest that rebound from 163.87 has completed and will turn near term outlook bearish for 163.87 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Feb 4.00% 4.40% 4.40% 4.30%
0:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Feb -1.00% 3.90%
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Feb 7 8 9
3:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb P 40.30%
7:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan 19.3B 18.5B
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jan 0.20% 0.40%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jan 3.00% 1.80%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jan 0.30% 0.30%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan 3.30% 1.50%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.50% 0.30%
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Feb 0.80%
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound tumbled in London on active cross-selling in sterling, bids at 1.6685-95 and stops at 1.6680, 1.6665 as well as 1.6640 were cleared, mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.6615-20, fresh demand should emerge around 1.6580-90. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.6680-85 and 1.6700 with some stops placed above 1.6710, followed by combination of offers and stops located at 1.6740-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Target met and buy again at 0.8280

The single currency extended last week's anticipated rebound and our long position entered at 0.8230 met indicated target at 0.8330, current firmness has justified our bullish view that low has been formed at 0.8158, mild upside bias remains for the rise from there to bring at least a retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 0.8350 (last month's high), a sustained breach above this level would reinforce our mildly bullish count that (a)-(b)-(c) correction from 0.8769 has ended

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1000

Despite last week's fall to 1.0955, as the greenback found renewed buying interest there and has staged a strong rebound, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1160, break there would add credence to our view that the decline from 1.1194 has ended at 1.0955 and signal upmove has resumed for test of 1.1194, then towards recent high of 1.1224.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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