Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-20-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Maintains Post FOMC Gains 2015 Rate Hike Expectations

Dollar jumped sharply overnight after the more hawkish then expected FOMC announcement. Dollar index rose to as high as 80.11, comparing to last week's low of 79.27 and is now trying to defend 80 handle. Treasury yield also responded positively with 30 year yield back at 3.67 and 10 year yield rose to 2.772. On the other hand, stocks responded negatively with DOW closed down -114 pts, or -0.7%. S&P 500 dropped -11.48 pts, or -0.61%. Gold seemed to have faced strong resistance below 1400 and extended its fall from recent high of 1396.2 to as low as 1326.1 so far. In the currency markets, Dollar is strongest against Canadian dollar which was evident in the strong break of 1.1223 key near term resistance level. Meanwhile, the next weakest were the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1148; (P) 1.1209; (R1) 1.1298; More...

USD/CAD's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.1270 so far. Break of 1.1223 confirmed resumption of larger up trend from 0.9633. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rise should now target 61.8% projection of 1.0181 to 1.1223 from 1.1024 at 1.1668, which is close to the next long term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 1.1151 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.1024 support and bring another rise.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Gross Domestic Product Q/Q Q4 0.90% 0.90% 1.40% 1.20%
7:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Feb 2.47B 2.59B
7:00 EUR German PPI M/M Feb 0.10% -0.10%
7:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Feb -0.90% -1.10%
8:30 CHF SNB Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00%
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Mar 5 3
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 15) 325K 315K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Mar 4 -6.3
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Feb 4.62M 4.62M
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Feb 0.20% 0.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -195B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to trade narrowly as traders await FOMC later today, offers are still noted from 1.3935 up to 1.3950-65, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3975 (barrier) and defensive offers are tipped ahead of sizeable barrier at 1.4000 with more stops placed above there, more sell orders are tipped at 1.4020 and 1.4050. On the downside, bids are still noted at 1.3900 and 1.3870-75 and 1.3860, more buying interest is located at 1.3840-45 (stops below 1.3830) and further out at 1.3800-10, mixture of bids and stops is reported at 1.3780-90.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8300

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 0.8400 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.8340-45 is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.8300 and bring another upmove later, above said resistance would extend the rise from 0.8158 low for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 0.8425-30 and later towards previous resistance at 0.8467

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1125

Current rally suggests a possible upside break of recent triangle wave (iv) consolidation and gain towards recent high of 1.1224 would be seen, however, above there is needed to confirm and signal wave (v) is underway for headway to 1.1235-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3066-0.9407) and then 1.1275-80 but as this move is viewed as the wave (v) of of wave iii, upside should be limited to 1.1300-10

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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