Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-19-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: An Eventful Day ahead with BoE Minutes, UK Jobs and FOMC

US markets were lifted by housing data and Russian president Putin's comment that he's not going to further split Ukraine. DOW and S&P 500 extended this week's rebound. Nonetheless, the positive sentiments didn't carry on to Asian session as investors are getting cautious ahead of FOMC announcement. Major Asian indices fluctuated between gains and loss. Released in Asia today, Japan trade deficit narrowed to JPY -1.13T in February but was larger than expectation of JPY -0.89T. New Zealand current account deficit narrowed to NZD -1.43b in Q4. Australian Westpac leading indicator dropped -0.1% mom in February.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8372; (P) 0.8386; (R1) 0.8410; More....

EUR/GBP's rally resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 0.8399 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, we're favoring the bullish case that consolidation pattern from 0.8806 has finished at 0.8157 after hitting 0.8164 key support. Further rise should be seen to 0.8466 resistance next. However, considering that EUR/GBP is now pressing a near term falling channel resistance, break of 0.8341 minor support will dampen the bullish view and turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q4 -1.43B -1.44B -4.78B -4.88B
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb -0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Feb -1.13T -0.89T -1.82T -1.76T
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jan 1.20% -0.10%
9:30 GBP Bank of England Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Feb -25.0K -27.6K
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Feb 3.50% 3.60%
9:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Jan 7.20% 7.20%
10:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Mar 28.7
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jan 1.00% -1.40%
12:30 USD Current Account Balance Q4 -$88.0B -$94.8B
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 6180K
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:30 USD Fed Press Conference
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency went up and down on mixed US data, offers are still noted at 1.3950-65, 1.3975 (barrier) and 1.4000 with more stops placed above sizeable barrier at 1.4000, more sell orders are tipped at 1.4020 and 1.4050. On the downside, bids at 1.3900 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.3870-75 and 1.3860, more buying interest is located at 1.3840-45 (stops below 1.3830) and further out at 1.3800-10, mixture of bids and stops is reported at 1.3780-90.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8300

As the single currency has edged higher again, bullishness remains for the rise from 0.8158 low to bring at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 0.8400-10 and later towards previous resistance at 0.8467, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 0.8500 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1000

The greenback has continued to trade within recent established range, this wave (iv) is probably developing into a triangle and downside should be limited to 1.1000 and bring another rise later, above resistance at 1.1154 would revive bullishness and bring test of 1.1194, then towards recent high of 1.1224. Having said that, only a break of this resistance would resumption of upmove for further gain to 1.1235-40

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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