Thursday, March 20, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-20-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Extends Rally, More to Come?

Dollar continues today post-FOMC rally today and remains firm after job data from US, initial jobless claims came in slightly below expectation of 320k in the weekended March 15. More economic data will be released in the US session but that shouldn't alter the greenback's trend. The development in dollar index bearish some bullish implications. Break of 80.27 resistance firstly indicate that fall from 81.39 has completed already. More importantly, the pattern from 81.48 could be a consolidation pattern that's completed with three waves down to 79.27. And, that implies rise from 79.00 is ready to resume for another high above 81.48. This is a possible scenario considering again that 78.72 represents an important long term support level. The next focus will be on whether the index could sustain above 55 days EMA, now at 80.22. And in that case, we'd likely see a challenge on 81.39/48 resistance zone in near term.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8746; (P) 0.8787; (R1) 0.8848; More...

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8689 extends higher today but is still kept below 0.8895 resistance. Thus, there is no change in the bearish outlook. Another fall is still expected and below 0.8968 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9751 to 0.8799 from 0.9156 at 0.8568 next. However, break of 0.8895 will firstly indicate that fall from 0.9156 has completed. More importantly, it would argue that the larger fall from 0.9838 has completed a five way sequence too. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for at least a test on 0.9156 resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Gross Domestic Product Q/Q Q4 0.90% 0.90% 1.40% 1.20%
07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Feb 2.62B 2.47B 2.59B 2.55B
07:00 EUR German PPI M/M Feb 0.00% 0.10% -0.10%
07:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Feb -0.90% -0.90% -1.10%
08:30 CHF SNB Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Mar 6 5 3
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 15) 320K 325K 315K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Mar 4 -6.3
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Feb 4.62M 4.62M
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Feb 0.20% 0.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -195B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped again today in European session, bids at 1.3800-10 and 1.3780-90 were cleared, however, some buy orders are still noted at 1.3750, fresh buying interest is tipped at 1.3720-30 and further out at 1.3700. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3800, 1.3820 and in good size at 1.3840-45 with stops building up above 1.3855-60, more sell orders are located at 1.3880 and in good size at 1.3900-15.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6565

Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.6654, as the British pound dropped sharply after faltering below indicated resistance at 1.6666 and broke below support at 1.6546, suggesting the decline from 1.6823 top has resumed for retracement of early upmove, hence further weakness to 1.6470 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6252-1.6823) would be seen

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3840

Yesterday's post-FOMC selloff together with the breach of indicated support area at 1.3834-46 signal top has been formed at 1.3967 and downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove to previous resistance at 1.3749, then 1.3720-25, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below latter level and price should stay above support at 1.3707.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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