Thursday, March 13, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-14-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Soars ahead of Crucial Weekend in Crimea

The Japanese yen strengthens broadly on risk aversion as global equities tumbled sharply ahead of an important weekend in Crimea, which is now seen as having the biggest geopolitical crisis in Europe since the Cold War. DOW closed -231 pts, or -1.4% lower at 16108.89 overnight while S&P 500 dropped -21.9pts, or -1.2%, to 1846.34. Asia equities followed with Nikkei dropping over-400 pts, or -2.7% at the time of writing. HK HSI is also losing over -250 pts, or -1.1%. In the currency markets, the yen is the clear winner in the current market situation while sterling is the biggest loser. Kiwi stayed firm after the hawkish RBNZ hike earlier this week and maintains gain against other major currencies except yen. Dollar and Euro are mixed with EUR/USD losing momentum ahead of 1.4 handle.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.09; (P) 169.85; (R1) 171.01; More.....

The decline from 173.57 accelerates lower and reaches as low as 168.70 so far. The breach of 168.82 support argues that rebound from 163.87 has possibly completed at 173.57 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Fall from 173.57 could be the third leg of the correction pattern from 174.84 and would now target 163.87 and possibly below. On the upside, above 171.63 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 173.57 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Feb 56.2 56.2 56.3
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan F 4.00% 4.00%
7:00 EUR German CPI M/M Feb F 0.50% 0.50%
7:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Feb F 1.20% 1.20%
8:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Feb 0.00% 0.00%
8:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Feb -0.40% -0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 0.00% 0.00%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Feb 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Feb 1.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Feb 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Feb 1.30%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar P 81.6 81.6
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone after hitting multi-year high above 1.3950 earlier today, however, selling interest is tipped around 1.3965-70 and further out at 1.3985-1.4000 region with more stops placed above sizeable barrier at 1.4000. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.3920, 1.3900 and 1.3885, more buy orders are reported from 1.3860 all the way down to 1.3800 (some stops are placed below 1.3830 and 1.3790), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3740-50 (more stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8300

As the single currency has eased after intra-day rise to 0.8378, suggesting consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.8320-25 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.8300 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend the rise from 0.8158 low for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 0.8400-10

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - stopped profit and buy again at 1.1000

Despite yesterday's rise to 1.1154, lack of follow through buying and current retreat suggest further consolidation within recent established range would be seen and weakness to 1.1000 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0980-85 would hold and bring another rise later, above said resistance would revive bullishness and bring test of 1.1194

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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