Thursday, March 13, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-13-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD heading to 1.4 on Safe Haven Flow on Ukraine Uncertainties

European majors strengthened against dollar today as helped by safe haven flow on uncertainties in Ukraine. Nonetheless, they are overshadowed by the strength in Kiwi, which was boosted by more hawkish that expected RBNZ, and Aussie, while was lifted by employment data. Dollar and yen are both generally pressured. Better than expected data from US is providing mild support to the greenback in slowing its decline but that support might not last long. We'd probably see EUR/USD having a take on 1.4 handle before the week closes. From US, retail sales rose 0.3% in February while ex-auto sales also rose 0.3%, both were above expectation of 0.2%. Import price index rose 0.9% mom in February. Initial jobless claims dropped to 315k in the week ended March 7 versus consensus of 334k. Canadian new housing price index rose 0.3% mom in January.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3859; (P) 1.3887 (R1) 1.3930; More....

EUR/USD's rally continues today and reaches as high as 1.3964 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.4 psychological level first. Decisive break there will extend the larger up trend from 1.2755 to 61.8% projection of 1.2755 to 1.3892 from 1.3476 at 4179 next. On the downside, break of 1.3833 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jan 13.40% 7.30% -15.70%
00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar 2.10% 2.30%
00:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Feb 45% 52% 53% 52%
00:30 AUD Employment Change Feb 47.3K 15.3K -3.7K 18.0K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Feb 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
05:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Feb 17.90% 19.40% 19.60%
05:30 CNY Retail Sales YTD Y/Y Feb 11.80% 13.50% 13.10%
05:30 CNY Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Feb 8.60% 9.50% 9.70%
09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
12:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q4 82.00% 82.30% 81.70% 81.20%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jan 0.30% 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Feb 0.30% 0.20% -0.40% -0.60%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Feb 0.30% 0.20% 0.00% -0.30%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 7) 315k 334K 323K 324K
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Feb 0.90% 0.70% 0.40%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jan 0.40% 0.50%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -152B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone after hitting multi-year high above 1.3950 earlier today, however, selling interest is tipped around 1.3965-70 and further out at 1.3985-1.4000 region with more stops placed above sizeable barrier at 1.4000. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.3920, 1.3900 and 1.3885, more buy orders are reported from 1.3860 all the way down to 1.3800 (some stops are placed below 1.3830 and 1.3790), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3740-50 (more stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6610

Despite yesterday's brief fall to 1.6568, as the British pound found good support there and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen, above 1.6720 would signal recent decline has ended and bring further rise to 1.6740-45 but resistance at 1.6786 would cap upside.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Look to buy again lower

Euro's intra-day rise to 1.3967 adds credence to our bullish view and recent upmove may extend further gain towards psychological resistance at 1.4000, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.4020-25 and price should falter well below 1.4045-50, risk from there has increased for a correction to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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