Monday, March 17, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-17-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Awaiting Response from EU and US to Russia

Markets are rather steady today as traders are awaiting the response from EU and US on the controversial referendum in Crimea yesterday. EU foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to decide on whether to impose travel bans and asset freeze to Russian officials. US president Obama's administration is also expected to unveil respective measures. For the mean time, major currency pairs are trading in tight range. European indices are mildly lower with limited gains. US futures are pointing to a rebound with higher open.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.10; (P) 101.48; (R1) 101.77; More...

A temporary low is formed at 101.20 in USD/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Nonetheless, near term outlook remains cautiously bearish for the moment. As noted before, the corrective pattern from 100.75 should have finished at 103.75 already and the decline from 105.41 is possibly resuming. We'd expect current consolidation from 101.20 to be limited well below 103.75 to bring another decline. Below 101.20 will target 100.75. Break there will confirm the bearish case and target 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 103.75 at 99.09. Also, decisive break of 100.61 key support will have larger bearish implications.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Mar 1.60% 3.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Feb F 0.30% 0.40% -1.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb F 0.70% 0.80% 0.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Feb F 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jan 1.09B 3.24B -4.28B
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Mar 5.6 6.25 4.48
13:15 USD Industrial Production Feb 0.60% 0.20% -0.30%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Feb 78.80% 78.60% 78.50%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Mar 47 50 46
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has jumped in NY morning shortly after the release of US data, offers at 1.3910-20 were filled, some sell orders are still noted at 1.3950-60, 1.3980 and 1.4000 with more stops placed above sizeable barrier at 1.4000. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.3900, 1.3870-75 and 1.3860, more buying interest is located at 1.3840-45 (stops below 1.3830) and further out at 1.3800-10, mixture of bids and stops is reported at 1.3780-90.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.8730

Failure to extend intra-day rebound and current retreat in NY morning suggest further consolidation would be seen but as long as last week's low of 0.8699 holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above resistance at 0.8765 would add credence to our view that a temporary low is formed there and bring retracement of recent decline towards 0.8800-05 and later 0.8816-21

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.3930

Current rebound in NY morning after the release of US data suggests caution on our short position entered at 1.3930 and Friday's high of 1.3937 needs to hold to retain prospect of another retreat, below intra-day support at 1.3879 would add credence to our view that rebound from 1.3846 has ended, bring weakness to support area at 1.3834-46, a sustained break there would confirm and bring retracement of early upmove to 1.3800

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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