Thursday, October 1, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 10-2-15

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Range Bound as Non-Far Payroll Awaited

Dollar continues to stay in tight range against most major currencies as traders await employment report from US. Non-farm payroll is expected to show 200k growth in September. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.1% while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% mom. The pre-NFP job data were solid but unspectacular. ADP report showed decent growth of 200k in private sector jobs in August, up from prior month's 186k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing dropped to 50.5 from 51.2, hitting the lowest level since April. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims was relatively unchanged, down fro 275k to 271k. Continuing claims dropped slightly from 2.26m to 2.19m. Conference board consumer confidence, on the other hand, jumped to 103.0, highest since January. Today's NFP would likely show solid data and pave another step for Fed's rate hike in December.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6990; (P) 0.7037; (R1) 0.7077; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.6905 could extend with another rise. Above 0.7095 will target 0.7278 resistance and above. But in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to complete the consolidation. On the downside, firm break of 0.6905 will bring down trend resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Aug 3.40% 3.30% 3.30%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Aug 2.90% 0.40% -0.20%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Sep 35.10% 34.20% 33.30%
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.40% 0.40% -0.10%
8:30 GBP Construction PMI Sep 57.5 57.3
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Aug -0.50% -0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Aug -2.10%
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Sep 200k 173k
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Sep 5.10% 5.10%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Sep 0.20% 0.30%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Aug -0.60% 0.40%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has rebounded in part due to soft US data, offers at 1.1170, 1.1185 and 1.1200 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.1220, 1.1245 and 1.1260, selling interest should emerge around 1.1280 and 1.1300. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1155-65, 1.1135 and 1.1120, buying interest is tipped at 1.1100-05, 1.1085 (stops below) and 1.1065, fresh demand is located at 1.1050, 1.1030 and 1.1000.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stopped profit and stand aside

Although the single currency has rebounded after finding support at 0.7356 and gain to 0.7415-20 cannot be ruled out, break of this week's high at 0.7437 is needed to signal recent rise from 0.6936 low (wave v trough) has resumed and extend upmove to 0.7450-55 and later towards 0.7490-00, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond latter level.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Exit long entered at 1.3250

As the retreat from 1.3457 (this week's high) has gathered momentum, suggesting further consolidation below this level would be seen and near term downside risk is seen for retracement of recent upmove, hence weakness to 1.3200 and possibly 1.3175-80 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed at 1.3457, bring a stronger correction towards 1.3140

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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