Sunday, October 4, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 10-5-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Mildly Lower, Sterling in Focus this Week

Dollar open the week mildly lower as there is some fresh selling in response to last week's weak employment data. But weakness is still limited except versus Canadian dollar. Some analysts noted that with well contained inflation, lackluster wage growth and slowing employment growth, there is no compelling reason for Fed to hike rates in December. On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota was quoted saying that "Given the inflation outlook, given how low inflation is expected to be, to ensure the credibility of our inflation target, taking a more accommodative stance in September would have been totally justified." And, he emphasized that "this is a time to think about adding accommodation, not a time to be thinking about taking it away."

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3113; (P) 1.3190; (R1) 1.3230; More...

USD/CAD drops further to 1.3130 so far today as fall from 1.3456 continues. The risk of trend reversal is increasing as the pair failed a long term retracement level at 1.3469 and there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But, we'd stay cautious first with focus on 1.3011 support. Break there will at least bring deeper fall back to 1.2834 resistance turned support. Meanwhile, on the upside, firm break of 1.3456 resistance is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise risk will stay on the downside for another fall.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Sep 0.30% 0.10%
1:30 JPY Real Cash Earnings Y/Y Aug 0.50% 0.70% 0.30% 0.90%
7:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Sep 54.8 54.6
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Sep F 54 54
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Oct 12.2 13.6
8:30 GBP Services PMI Sep 56.4 55.6
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Aug -0.10% 0.40%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Sep 58 59
14:00 USD Labor Market Conditions Index Change Sep 2.1
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped in NY morning on dollar's broad-based weakness after NFP, offers at 1.1185, 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1280 and 1.1300 were filled, however, selling interest is tipped at 1.1330 and 1.1350, more sell orders are reported at 1.1390-00 and further out at 1.1440-50. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1260-70 and 1.1235-40, buy orders are expected at 1.1205-10 (stops below 1.1200) and 1.1180, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.1150, more buying interest should emerge around 1.1135, 1.1120 and 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.3155

Although the retreat from 1.3457 (this week's high) has kept price under pressure and near term downside risk remains for this fall to bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.3155-60, however, loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside to 1.3140, bring rebound later, above 1.3275 would bring recovery to 1.3310-20 and possibly towards 1.3350

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stand aside

Although the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 0.7355 today and the erratic rise from 0.6936 low (wave v trough) may extend further gain to 0.7450-55, as this move is viewed as retracement of early decline, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7490-00 and price should falter below 0.7550-55, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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