Friday, October 2, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-2-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Pressured after NFP Disappointment

Dollar is notably lower in early US session after disappointment from employment data. Non-farm payrolls show 142k growth in September only, much lower than expectation of 142k. Prior month's figure was also revised sharply lower from 173k to 136k. Another disappointment was found in wage growth with average hourly earnings flat comparing with expectation of 0.2% mom. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%. Some analysts noted that the headline NFP number showed there could be knee-jerk reactions to recent market volatility. But it surely justified Fed's decision to stand pat in September. And some impressive recovery in hiring ahead is needed to secure the chance of a hike in December.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9733; (P) 0.9760; (R1) 0.9800; More....

The break of 0.9667 support suggests that the rebound from 0.9256 is possibly completed at 0.9842. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9527 support and below. but overall, recent price actions are viewed as a triangle pattern. Thus, we'd expect strong support above 0.9256 to contain downside and bring rebound. And eventual upside breakout is still favored.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Aug 3.40% 3.30% 3.30%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Aug 2.90% 0.40% -0.20%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Sep 35.10% 34.20% 33.30%
01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.40% 0.40% -0.10%
08:30 GBP Construction PMI Sep 59.9 57.5 57.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Aug -0.80% -0.50% -0.10% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Aug -2.60% -2.40% -2.10%
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Sep 142K 200k 173k 136K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Sep 5.10% 5.10% 5.10%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Sep 0% 0.20% 0.30%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Aug -0.60% 0.40%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped in NY morning on dollar's broad-based weakness after NFP, offers at 1.1185, 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1280 and 1.1300 were filled, however, selling interest is tipped at 1.1330 and 1.1350, more sell orders are reported at 1.1390-00 and further out at 1.1440-50. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1260-70 and 1.1235-40, buy orders are expected at 1.1205-10 (stops below 1.1200) and 1.1180, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.1150, more buying interest should emerge around 1.1135, 1.1120 and 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Target met and stand aside

Although current anticipated rebound has justified our near term bullishness and test of indicated resistance at 1.5241 is likely, break there is needed to signal low has been formed at 1.5107 yesterday, bring retracement of recent decline towards another previous resistance at 1.5289 and then 1.5300-10 but price should falter below 1.5341 (previous support).

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1240

As the single currency has rallied after finding buying interest at 1.1150 in part due to the release of soft US NFP data, suggesting a possible upside break of recent established range has occurred and gain to previous resistance at 1.1330 would be seen, however, above there is needed to signal the fall from 1.1460 has ended at 1.1105, bring further rise to 1.1350

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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