Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-6-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft on Fed Hike Delay Speculations

Dollar remains soft today as there are increasing speculations that Fed will delay first rate hike in years. Goldman Sachs said that could delay well into 2016 or even later. On the other hand, BoE might also push back the rate hike into even 2017. Both dollar and sterling are under much selling pressure against commodity currencies this week. Meanwhile, Euro is relatively firm even though there is also speculation that ECB would expand the asset purchase program.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1145; (P) 1.1216 (R1) 1.1260; More.....

EUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays in range of 1.1104/1.1459 and intraday bias remains neutral. Risk remains on the downside with 1.1459 resistance intact. Below 1.1104 will resume the fall from 1.1713 and target 1.0807 support next. Note that whole corrective rise from 1.0461 has completed at 1.1713, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Break of 1.0807 would pave the way back to 1.0461. However, break of 1.1459 resistance will bring another rise through 1.1713 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey Q3 -14 5
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Aug -3.10B -2.36B -2.46B -2.79B
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Aug -1.80% 0.50% -1.40% -2.20%
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Sep 0.10% 0.10% -0.20%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Sep -1.40% -1.40% -1.40%
08:10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI Sep 51.9 51.4
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Aug -2.5B -0.3B -0.59b -0.8B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Aug -48.3B -$41.65b -$41.86b -41.8B
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Sep 53.7 54.1 58
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered after finding support just above 1.1170 and offers at 1.1225-30 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.1250, 1.1265 and 1.1280, selling interest is tipped at 1.1300, 1.1330 and 1.1350. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1200-05, 1.1180-85 and 1.1155-60, buy orders are expected at 1.1135 and 1.1120, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 119.60

Dollar's breach of previous resistance at 120.41 adds credence to our view that the fall from 121.24 has ended at 118.68 on Friday and bullishness remains for the rebound from there to extend further gain to 120.75-80 and possibly towards 121.00, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and price should falter well below said resistance at 121.24

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Sell at 0.7170

As aussie has continued to move higher after staging a strong rebound from 0.6937, suggesting near term upside risk remains for gain to 0.7145-50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7280-0.6937), however, as this move is viewed as retracement of the reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 0.7159, bring retreat later, below 0.7040-45 would bring test of 0.6995-00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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