Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 11-12-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Aussie Soars on Stellar Employment Report

Aussie jumps sharply in Asian session in response to stellar employment report. The job market grew 58.6k in October, almost four times of expectation of 15.2k. That's also the highest number since March 2012. Among the growth, 40k were full time jobs while 18.6k were part time jobs. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% versus expectation of being unchanged at 6.2%, and hit an 18 month low. Participation rate also rose from 64.9% to 65.0%. While there were expectations for RBA to cut interest rate again next year, the strong employment data would give the central more room to wait-and-see. Also, the expected hike from Fed could also lift some pressure from RBA for more cuts. AUD/USD is trading back above 0.7140 at the time of writing, comparing to this week's low of 0.7015. Current development suggests that the sideway trading from September low of 0.6905 would extend for a while.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7009; (P) 0.7036; (R1) 0.7058; More...

A temporary low is in place at 0.7015 in AUD/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, fall from 0.7381 might be completed. Break of 0.7223 will target 0.7381 again. But after all, price actions from 0.6905 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. And strong resistance is expected from 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to limit upside. Larger down trend is still expected to resume later.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Oct 53.3 55.4
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Oct -3.80% -3.50% -3.90% -4.00%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Sep 7.50% 3.40% -5.70%
00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov 3.50% 3.50%
00:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Oct 49% 46% 44%
00:30 AUD Employment Change Oct 58.6K 15.2K -5.1k -0.8K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Oct 5.90% 6.20% 6.20%
07:00 EUR German CPI M/M Oct F 0.00% 0.00%
07:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Oct F 0.30% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Sep -0.10% -0.50%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 7) 276K
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Sep 0.20% 0.30%
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.8M
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Oct -130.2B 91.1B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support just above 1.0700 and has recovered, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.0760-65, 1.0780-85 and 1.0800, offers are reported at 1.0820, 1.0845-50, selling interest is tipped at 1.0885 and 1.0900. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0700, 1.0685 and 1.0665, buying interest should emerge around 1.0650, 1.0630 and 1.0600.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 1.0000

As the greenback has retreated again after meeting resistance at 1.0072, suggesting further consolidation below yesterday's high of 1.0087 would be seen, however, as long as 1.0020 minor support holds, bullishness remains for another rise, above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.0100 and possibly towards 1.0129-34

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.0650 or sell at 1.0810

The single currency found support at 1.0674 yesterday and rebounded, suggesting consolidation would be seen and test of resistance at 1.0790 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0810 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1030-1.0674) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Below 1.0700 would bring retest of 1.0674

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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