Monday, November 30, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-30-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Firm But Lacks Momentum

Dollar stays firm against Euro today but there is so far no follow through buying in the greenback. There are some key events from both Eurozone and US this week that would possibly drive down EUR/USD. In particular, ECB is widely expected to announce additional easing measures . Those would probably include further reduction in the deposit rate and expansion of the asset purchase program. Meanwhile, ISM indices and non-farm payroll report would most likely clear the hurdle for Fed to hike interest rates in December. Released in US session, US pending home sales rose 0.2% mom in October while Chicago PMI dropped sharply to 48.7 in November. Canada current account deficit was relatively unchanged at CAD -16.2b in Q3.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0560; (P) 1.0599 (R1) 1.0629; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.0461 low. Decisive break there will confirm down trend resumption and target 50% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1713 at 0.9947 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.0762 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Oct 5.10% -5.70%
23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Nov 0.10% 0.00%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P 1.40% 1.90% 1.10%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Oct 1.80% 0.90% -0.20% -0.10%
00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Nov 14.6 10.5
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct -2.50% 2.50% 2.60%
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov 97.9 100.3 99.8 100.4
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Oct 70K 70K 68.9k
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Oct 0.60% -0.20% -1.00%
13:00 EUR German CPI M/M Nov P 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
13:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Nov P 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
13:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q3 -16.21B -15.2B -17.4B -16.57B
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Nov 48.7 54 56.2
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Oct 0.20% 1.30% -2.30%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded lower earlier today, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.0550 and 1.0525-30, bids are reported at 1.0500 (stops below), 1.0485 and 1.0465, buying interest is tipped at 1.0450, 1.0425-30 and 1.0400. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0600, 1.0630-35 and 1.0650, sell orders are expected at 1.0665, 1.0685-90 and 1.0700, selling interest should emerge around 1.0720-25, 1.0745 and 1.0760, sellers are awaiting at 1.0780-85 and 1.0800.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.0620

As the single currency has remained under pressure, suggesting recent decline is still in progress and bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.0530-35 (50% projection of 1.1073-1.0617 measuring from 1.0763), then towards 1.0500 but loss of downward momentum should limit downside and price should stay above 1.0460-65, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 122.70

Current break of 122.94 suggests the decline from 123.76 has ended at 122.26 last week and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of resistance at 123.26 but break there is needed to add credence to this view, bring further gain to 123.50 and then retest of said resistance at 123.76. Looking ahead, only a break of this level would signal medium term upmove has resumed for headway to 124.00-10

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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