Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-25-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Extends Rally Against Euro after Positive Data

Dollar extends recent rally against Euro in early US session, partly with help from positive economic data. Headline durable goods orders rose 3.0% in October, double of expectation of 1.5%. Ex-transport orders rose 0.5%, also beat expectation of 0.4%. Initial jobless claims dropped 12k to 260k in the week ended November 21, lower than expectation of 273k. The four week moving average of initial claims held at 271k. Continuing claims rose from 2.17m to 2.21m. Personal income rose 0.4% in October but spending was a disappointment and rose only 0.1%. Headline PCE was unchanged at 0.2% yoy while core PCE was unchanged at 1.3% yoy too.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0617; (P) 1.0645 (R1) 1.0671; More.....

EUR/USD's fall resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as slow as 1.0576 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for a test on 1.0461 low. Decisive break there will confirm down trend resumption and target 50% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1713 at 0.9947 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.0762 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Oct 0.50% 0.60% 0.60% 0.50%
23:50 JPY BOJ Minutes
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Oct 1.6 1.65
09:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals Oct 45.4K 45.5K 44.5K 44.8K
13:30 USD Personal Income Oct 0.40% 0.40% 0.10% 0.20%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Oct 0.10% 0.30% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Oct 0.10% 0.10% -0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Oct 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Oct 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Oct 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Oct 3.00% 1.50% -1.20%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Oct 0.50% 0.40% -0.40%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 21) 260K 273K 271K 272K
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Sep 0.50% 0.30%
15:00 USD New Home Sales Oct 500k 468k
15:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Nov F 93.1 93.1
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.3M
17:00 USD Natural Gas Storage 15B
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency ran into selling interest at 1.0689 and has retreated in European morning, offers are still noted at 1.0690-00 and 1.0720-25, sell orders are reported at 1.0745 and 1.0760, selling interest is tipped at 1.0780-85 and 1.0800. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0615-20 and 1.0600, buy orders are expected at 1.0580-85 and 1.0550, buying interest should emerge around 1.0525-30 and 1.0500. Option expires today include: 1.0550 (1.5 bln), 1.0600 (over 1.5 bln), 1.0650 (large) and 1.0700 (1.5 bln).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7040

Current rebound suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed at 0.6982 last week and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline and gain to resistance at 0.7110 is likely, however, break there is needed to add credence to this view, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7130 and later 0.7150-55 but price should falter well below resistance at 0.7197-00.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

Although the greenback resumed recent rise and rose to as high as 1.3436 yesterday, the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.3290-00 cannot be ruled out, however, break of 1.3245-50 is needed to signal top has been formed there, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.3200, then towards 1.3160-70 which is likely to hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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