Thursday, November 19, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-19-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft as Consolidation Continues after Jobless Claims

Dollar remains generally soft in early US session as job data showed mild improvement. Initial jobless claims dropped 5k to 271k in the week ended November 14. The four week moving average rose 3k to 270.75k. Continuing claims rose 2k to 2.18m in the week ended November 7. Overall, the data showed continued gradual improvement in the job market. Also from US, Philly Fed survey rose to 1.9 in November. Canada wholesale sales dropped -0.1% mom in September. The currency markets are staying in consolidative mode with out a clear direction as FOMC minutes, ECB minutes and BoJ rate decision provided little stimulus. European indices, on the other hand, are broadly higher on rebound. US futures on the other hand, point to flat open.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.28; (P) 123.52; (R1) 123.82; More...

USD/JPY lost upside momentum again but still, as long as 122.21 minor support holds, further rise is mildly in favor. Current rally would target 125.27/85 resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm up trend resumption and will target 130 handle. Nonetheless, break of 122.21 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 55 days EMA (now at 121.48).

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
21:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30%
21:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Oct -0.20T -0.38T -0.36T
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Sep -0.20% 0.20% -0.20% -0.10%
07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Oct 4.16B 3.18B 3.05B 3.25B
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Sep 29.4B 18.3B 17.7B
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Oct -0.60% -0.40% 1.90%
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Nov -11 -18
12:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Sep -0.10% 0.20% -0.10%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 14) 271K 272K 276K
13:30 USD Philly Fed Survey Nov 1.9 0 -4.5
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Oct 0.50% -0.20%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 49B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro remained confined in familiar range, bids are still noted at 1.0665, 1.0650 and 1.0630-35 (stops below), buy orders are reported at 1.0620, 1.0600 and 1.0580, buying interest is tipped at 1.0550, 1.0525-30 and 1.0500. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0720-25 and 1.0745, sell orders are expected at 1.0760, 1.0780-85 and 1.0800, selling interest should emerge around 1.0830 and 1.0850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 1.0110

Although the greenback surged yesterday to as high as 1.0220, the subsequent retreat suggests minor top has been formed there and consolidation below this level would be seen with mild downside bias for correction to 1.0128-32 (yesterday's low and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0044-1.0220), however, reckon 1.0110-15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another upmove later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.0640

Although the single currency fell briefly to 1.0617 in late NY, the subsequent strong suggests low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline, above 1.0720-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0831-1.0617) would bring further gain to 1.0749-58 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and previous resistance), however, upside should be limited and resistance at 1.0808 should remain intact

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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