Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-11-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Higher as Unemployment Fell to Seven Year Low

Sterling is generally higher today after release of job data. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% in the three months ended September. Lowest level since April 2008. The total number of unemployment dropped by 103k to 1.75m. The Office for National Statistics noted that "these figures continue the recent strengthening trend in the labour market, with a new record high in the employment rate and the unemployment rate still at its lowest level since spring 2008." Meanwhile, claimant counts rose 3.3k in October versus expectation of 1.6%. Nonetheless, some economists noted that the weak wage growth of 2% would be a concern to BoE policy makers and interest rates are likely to stay on hold still 2017. According to a Reuters poll of over 43 economists, 33 expected the first 25bps hike to come after March. But opinions are divided on whether that would happen in Q2, Q3 or Q4.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5091; (P) 1.5118; (R1) 1.5145; More...

A temporary low is in place at 1.5026 in GBP/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Deeper decline is still expected as long as 1.5508 resistance holds. Below 1.5026 will target a test on 1.4565 low.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Nov 3.90% 4.20%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Oct 3.60% 3.80% 3.80%
5:30 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Oct 11.00% 10.90% 10.90%
5:30 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Oct 5.60% 5.80% 5.70%
5:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Oct 10.20% 10.20% 10.30%
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Oct P -23.10% -19.10%
9:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Oct 3.3K 1.6K 4.6k
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Oct 2.30% 2.30%
9:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Sep 5.30% 5.40% 5.40%
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency finally rebounded after finding support at 1.0674 yesterday, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.0760-65, 1.0780-85 and 1.0800, offers are reported at 1.0820, 1.0845-50, selling interest is tipped at 1.0885 and 1.0900. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0730-35, 1.0720 and 1.0700, buy orders are expected at 1.0685, 1.0665 and 1.0650, buying interest should emerge around 1.0630 and 1.0600. Option expires today include: 1.0600, 1.0750 and 1.0800.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 1.0000

The greenback retreated after rising briefly to 1.0087 yesterday and consolidation below this level would be seen, however, as long as 1.0020 minor support holds, bullishness remains for another rise, above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.0100 and possibly towards 1.0129-34

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5220

As cable has maintained a firm undertone and near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.5027 (last week's low) to bring retracement of recent decline, above 1.5187 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5445-1.5027) would bring a stronger rebound towards 1.5220, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.5235-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement), bring another decline later

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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