Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 11-25-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Aussie Extends Recovery on RBA Stevens Comments

Aussie extends this week's recovery as RBA governor Glenn Stevens hinted that the central bank will stand pat in December. Stevens said yesterday that "we've got Christmas. We should just chill out, come back and see what the data says." Meanwhile, he also noted that "the effects of a decline in the exchange rate are proving a bit slow to come through." And, "slow wage growth makes for a low underlying rate of increase in domestic costs." Thus, "inflation would not be a barrier to further easing of monetary policy, should that be useful to support demand." But markets have been paring back expectations of a rate cut next year since the spectacular job report released earlier this month. Markets are only pricing less than 50% chance of a 25bps cut by May, comparing to more than 80% a month ago.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7206; (P) 0.7230; (R1) 0.7275; More...

The recovery from 0.7015 extends higher today and further rise could be seen towards 0.7381 resistance. Nonetheless, we're still viewing price actions from 0.6905 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, we'll expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.7158 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7015 support first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Oct 0.50% 0.60% 0.60% 0.50%
23:50 JPY BOJ Minutes
7:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Oct 1.65
9:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals Oct 45.5K 44.5K
13:30 USD Personal Income Oct 0.40% 0.10%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Oct 0.30% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Oct 0.10% -0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Oct 0.20%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Oct 0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Oct 1.30%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Oct 1.50% -1.20%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Oct 0.40% -0.40%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 21) 273K 271K
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Sep 0.50% 0.30%
15:00 USD New Home Sales Oct 500k 468k
15:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Nov F 93.1 93.1
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.3M
17:00 USD Natural Gas Storage 15B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro edged higher in European session but sell orders are still noted at 1.0680-85, 1.0700 and 1.0720-25, selling interest is tipped at 1.0745, 1.0760 and 1.0780-85, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.0800. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0615-25 and 1.0600, buy orders are expected at 1.0580-85 and 1.0550, buying interest should emerge around 1.0525-30 and 1.0500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7040

Current rebound suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed at 0.6982 last week and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline and gain to resistance at 0.7110 is likely, however, break there is needed to add credence to this view, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7130 and later 0.7150-55 but price should falter well below resistance at 0.7197-00.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

Although the greenback resumed recent rise and rose to as high as 1.3436 yesterday, the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.3290-00 cannot be ruled out, however, break of 1.3245-50 is needed to signal top has been formed there, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.3200, then towards 1.3160-70 which is likely to hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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