Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-17-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mixed after Inflation and Production Data

Dollar remains mixed in early US session after release of inflation and production data. Headline CPI rose to 0.2% yoy in October versus expectation of 0.1% yoy. Core CPI was unchanged at 1.9% yoy versus expectation of 1.9% yoy. Industrial production dropped -0.2% in October versus expectation of 0.1%. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 77.5%. The greenback attempted to extend recent rise against Euro but no follow through buying is seen. Strengths in USD/CHF and USD/JPY are mainly due to weakness of Swiss Franc and yen. Dollar is indeed mildly softer against Sterling, Aussie and Canadian dollar today.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0058; (P) 1.0080; (R1) 1.0117; More....

USD/CHF's rally continues today and reaches as high as 1.0149 so far, breaking 1.0127 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rise should target 1.0239 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9987 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD RBA November Minutes
02:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q4 1.85% 1.94%
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.20% -0.10%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Oct -0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Oct 1.10% 1.00% 1.00%
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Oct 0.00% 0.20% -0.10%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Oct 0.70% 0.90% 0.80%
09:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20% 0.60% 0.50%
09:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Oct -12.10% -12.00% -13.30% -13.40%
09:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Oct 0.00% -0.10% -0.10%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Oct 0.00% -1.40% -1.80%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Oct -0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Oct 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov 10.4 5.5 1.9
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Nov 54.4 55 55.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov 28.3 35.2 30.1
13:30 USD CPI M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20% -0.20%
13:30 USD CPI Y/Y Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%
13:30 USD CPI Core M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Oct 1.90% 1.90% 1.90%
14:15 USD Industrial Production Oct -0.20% 0.10% -0.20%
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Oct 77.50% 77.50% 77.50%
15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 62 64 64 65
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency remained under pressure today, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.0630-35, 1.0620 and 1.0600, buying interest is tipped at 1.0580 and 1.0550, fresh demand is located at 1.0525-30 and 1.0500. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0680 and 1.0700, sell orders are expected at 1.0725, 1.0745 and 1.0760, selling interest should emerge around 1.0780-85 and 1.0800.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 1.0080

As the greenback surged again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.0044 yesterday, adding credence to our view that recent upmove is still in progress and a firm break above 1.0129-34 (previous resistance and 61.8% projection of 0.9476-0.9958 measuring from 0.9836) would encourage for headway to 1.0150 and possibly towards 1.0180, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0200-10.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Hold short entered at 1.5215

Cable has rebounded after intra-day fall to 1.5155 in part due to the release of UK data, suggesting caution on our short position entered at 1.5215 and 1.5219 needs to hold to retain bearishness and bring another decline, below said support would add credence to our view that top has possibly been formed at 1.5265, then 1.5130-35, however, only break there would suggest the rebound from 1.5027 has ended there, bring further fall to 1.5090-00.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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