Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 11-19-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: FOMC Minutes Signaled December Hike, Stocks Boosted, Dollar Mixed

US stocks were lifted by FOMC minutes released overnight which indicated Fed's confidence in hiking interest rates in December, but dollar was mixed. DJIA closed up 247.66 pts, or 1.42%, at 17737.16 while S&P 500 closed up 33.14 pts, or 1.62%, at 2083.58. The strong risk appetite suggested that investors were more comforted by Fed's optimistic views on the economy rather than worried by the prospect of hike. And as both indices were well supported by 55 days EMA before the rebound, focus would now be turned back to historical highs of 18351.36 in DJIA and 2134.71 in S&P 500. Dollar index, on the other hand, is feeling some pressure ahead of 100 market and lost much momentum. In other markets, gold recovered mildly as dollar retreated but stays weak below 1080. Crude oil continues to stay in tight range just above 40 handle.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0144; (P) 1.0181; (R1) 1.0236; More....

USD/CHF surged to as high as 1.0219 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0239 resistance but we'll be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. Nonetheless, break of 0.9987 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat. Firm break of 1.0239 will target 161.8% projection of 0.9256 to 0.9842 from 0.9475 at 1.0423.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
21:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30%
21:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Oct -0.20T -0.38T -0.36T
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Sep 0.20% -0.20%
07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Oct 3.18B 3.05b
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Sep 18.3B 17.7b
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Oct -0.40% 1.90%
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Nov -18
12:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Sep -0.10%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 14) 272K 276K
15:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Nov 0 -4.5
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Oct 0.50% -0.20%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 49B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro's intra-day rebound met resistance at 1.0693 and has eased, sell orders are still noted at 1.0700, 1.0725 and 1.0745, selling interest is tipped at 1.0760, 1.0780-85 and 1.0800. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.0630-35 (stops below) and 1.0620, buy orders are expected at 1.0600, 1.0580 and 1.0550, buying interest should emerge around 1.0525-30 and 1.0500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.6970

As the single currency has remained under pressure, suggesting recent decline is still in progress and may extend weakness to 0.6985, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.6970, reckon 0.6950 would hold, bring rebound later. Above 0.7075-80 would bring test of 0.7110 resistance, break there would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed, bring retracement of recent decline to 0.7130

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Trade Idea : USD/CAD - Stand aside

Although the greenback has rebounded after finding support at 1.3297 yesterday, break of this week's high at 1.3371 is needed to signal the rise from 1.2832 has once again resumed and extend this move to 1.3400, then towards recent high at 1.3457. Looking ahead, only break there would confirm early upmove has resumed and bring headway towards 1.3500-10 but overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3550.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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