Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-18-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Pares gains ahead of FOMC Minutes

Dollar pares back some gains against Euro but stay bearish as markets await FOMC minutes. The financial markets are generally quite quiet today. European indices opened the day lower but recovered much of the losses. US futures are pointing to a flat open. Gold dipped sharply this week and stays soft below 1070. Crude oil, on the other hand, struggles in tight range between 40 and 42. In the currency markets, Canadian dollar and US dollar are so far the strongest major currencies while Euro and Kiwi are the weakest. Released from US, housing starts dropped to 1.06m annualized rate in October versus expectation of 1.16m. Building permits rose to 1.15m.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0619; (P) 1.0654 (R1) 1.0679; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment despite losing downside momentum. Current fall should target a test on 1.0461 low. Decisive break there will confirm down trend resumption and target 50% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1713 at 0.9947 next. On the upside, above 1.0829 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep $33.6B $20.4B $20.8B
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Sep -1.00% -0.40%
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Oct 0.10% 0.10%
00:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q3 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%
10:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Nov 0 18.3
13:30 USD Housing Starts Oct 1.06M 1.16M 1.21M 1.19M
13:30 USD Building Permits Oct 1.15M 1.15M 1.11M
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.0M 4.2M
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded after finding support at 1.0631, offers at 1.0665 and 1.0680 were filled but sell orders are reported at 1.0700, 1.0725 and 1.0745, selling interest is tipped at 1.0760, 1.0780-85 and 1.0800. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.0660, 1.0630-35 (stops below) and 1.0620, buy orders are expected at 1.0600, 1.0580 and 1.0550, buying interest should emerge around 1.0525-30 and 1.0500. Option expires today include: 1.0650 (large), 1.0735, 1.0750 and 1.0800 (over 1 bln).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.0730

As the single currency has rebounded after holding above indicated support at 1.0631 (yesterday's low and 50% projection of 1.1073-1.0674 measuring from 1.0831), suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to 1.0695-00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0808-1.0631) is likely, however, reckon the upper Kumo (now at 1.0726) would limit upside and bring another decline later, break of said support would extend recent decline to 1.0600

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 1.0080

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 1.0171 yesterday, minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0100-10 is likely, however, reckon 1.0080 would limit downside and bring another rise, break of said resistance would extend gain to 1.0200 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0225-30 and reckon 1.0250 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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