Friday, November 20, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-20-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Struggles in Range after Mixed Data

Canadian dollar continues to struggle in tight range after mixed economic data. Headline CPI rose 0.3% mom, 1.0% yoy in October, inline with consensus. Meanwhile, core CPI rose 0.3% mom, 2.1% yoy, beating expectation of 0.2% mom , 2.0% yoy. However, retail sales dropped -0.5% mom in September versus expectation of 0.2% mom rise. Ex-auto sales also dropped -0.5% mom versus expectation of -0.2% mom. Crude oil breached 40 handle today but quickly recovered. USD/CAD lose moment ahead of 1.3456 resistance earlier this week and turned into sideway trading. Strength in USD/CAD would very much depends on whether crude oil will power through 40, or rebound.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0671; (P) 1.0717 (R1) 1.0778; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for consolidation above 1.0616 temporary low. As long as 1.0829 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. Current fall should target a test on 1.0461 low. Decisive break there will confirm down trend resumption and target 50% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1713 at 0.9947 next. On the upside, above 1.0829 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
02:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index Oct
07:00 EUR German PPI M/M Oct -0.40% -0.20% -0.40%
07:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Oct -2.30% -2.00% -2.10%
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Oct 7.5B 5.5B 8.6B 8.3B
13:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Sep -0.50% 0.20% 0.50%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Sep -0.50% -0.20% 0.00%
13:30 CAD CPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.10% -0.20%
13:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Oct 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Oct 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Oct 2.10% 2.00% 2.10%
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov A -7 -7.7
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro traded narrowly after dropping to 1.0664 earlier in European morning, buy orders are still noted at 1.0665, 1.0650 and 1.0630-35, buying interest is tipped at 1.0620, 1.0600 and 1.0580, fresh demand is located at 1.0550, 1.0525-30 and 1.0500. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0720-25 and 1.0745, sell orders are expected at 1.0760, 1.0780-85 and 1.0800, selling interest should emerge around 1.0830 and 1.0850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 1.0105

Although the greenback rebounded after holding right at yesterday's low at 1.0122 and recovery to 1.0175-80 cannot be ruled out, as long as resistance at 1.0202 (yesterday's high) holds, downside risk remains for another retreat, below said support would extend weakness to 1.0100-05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9990-1.0220) but previous resistance at 1.0087-95 should hold, bring another rally. Above 1.0202 would bring retest of 1.0220

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 122.85

Dollar's rebound after yesterday's selloff to 122.62 suggests consolidation would be seen and another bounce to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 123.40-43) is likely, however, break of resistance at 123.76 is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 123.90-00 and later towards 124.25 (1.236 times projection of 118.06-121.51 measuring from 119.99) which is likely to cap upside from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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