Friday, November 13, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Daily Report 11-13-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mixed Despite Weak Retail Sales and PPI

Dollar stay mixed in early US session as recent consolidation pattern continues. The retreat in the greenback is relatively shallow as it stays firmly supported by expectation of Fed's rate hike in December. Economic data from US are disappointing but give little impact to dollar. Headline retail sales rose 0.1% in October versus expectation of 0.2%. Ex-auto sales rose 0.2% versus expectation 0.4%. PPI dropped -0.4% mom, -1.6% yoy in October, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, -1.2% yoy. PPI core dropped -0.3% mom, rose 0.1% yoy versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 0.5% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5188; (P) 1.5216; (R1) 1.5260; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.5026. Deeper decline is still expected as long as 1.5508 resistance holds. Below 1.5026 will target a test on 1.4565 low. However, break of 1.5508 will turn focus back to 1.5929 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep F 1.10% 1.00% 1.00%
04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Sep -0.40% 0.20% 0.10%
06:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.30% 0.30% 0.00%
07:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Oct 0.20% -0.20% -0.10%
08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Oct -6.60% -6.90% -6.80%
09:00 EUR Italian GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Sep 20.1B 19.4B 19.8B 19.0B
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 A 0.30% 0.40% 0.40%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Oct 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Oct 0.20% 0.40% -0.30% -0.40%
13:30 USD PPI M/M Oct -0.40% 0.20% -0.50%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Oct -1.60% -1.20% -1.10%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Oct -0.30% 0.10% -0.30%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Oct 0.10% 0.50% 0.80%
15:00 USD Business Inventories Sep 0.00% 0.00%
15:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Nov P 91 90
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 52B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped again after brief bounce to 1.0808, bids at 1.0750 and 1.0735 were filled but buy orders are reported at 1.0720, 1.0700, 1.0685 and 1.0665, buying interest is tipped at 1.0650, 1.0630 and 1.0600. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.0770-75 and 1.0810-20, sell orders are expected at 1.0845-50 and 1.0885, selling interest should emerge around 1.0900, 1.0930 and 1.0950.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 122.30

The greenback has remained under pressure and near term downside risk remains for the erratic fall from 123.61 (this week's high) to bring retracement of recent upmove and marginal weakness cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 122.30-35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 121.00-123.61) would limit downside, bring another upmove later, above the upper Kumo (now at 123.09) would bring test of resistance at 123.21

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold short entered at 0.7110

Aussie staged a strong rebound after finding support at 0.7016 and consolidation above this level would be seen and 0.7150-55 needs to hold to retain bearishness for another decline, below 0.7075-85 would suggest the rebound from 0.7016 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend the decline from 0.7382 to 0.7000, break there would encourage for further fall to 0.6980-85 and possibly 0.6950

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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