Monday, November 23, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 11-24-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Lost Momentum and Turned Soft

Dollar fails to ride on initial momentum and soften mildly in Asian session today. Fed chair Janet Yellen talked about the tightening path in a letter to US consumer advocate Ralph Nader. She noted that "An overly aggressive increase in rates ... would at undercut the economic expansion, necessitating a lasting return to low interest rates." It's generally expected that after the highly anticipated rate hike in December, Fed will keep the pace of tightening slow. However, there were also talks that Fed could lift rates at every second meeting in 2016 and at every meeting in 2017 as inflation makes a startling return. And the fed fund rate could hit 3.50% by the end of 2017. Now that December hike is nearly a done deal and well priced in, the expectations on policy path will be the main drive in dollar's exchange rate.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7155; (P) 0.7194; (R1) 0.7229; More...

With 0.7152 minor support intact, recovery from 0.7015 might extend higher. The consolidation pattern from 0.6905 is possibly extending. But overall, we'd still expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.7152 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7015 support first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:35 JPY PMI Manufacturing Nov P 52.8 52.1 52.4
07:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q3 F 0.30% 0.30%
09:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Nov 108 108.2
09:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Nov 112.3 112.6
09:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Nov 103.5 103.8
13:30 USD Trade Balance Oct -61.8B -58.6B
13:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q3 S 1.90% 1.50%
13:30 USD GDP Price Index Q3 S 1.20% 1.20%
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Sep 5.20% 5.09%
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Nov 99.2 97.6
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro fell initially to 1.0601 before recovering, bids remain above option barrier at 1.0600 (stops below), 1.0580-85 and 1.0550, buying interest is tipped at 1.0525-30 and 1.0500. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.0650-55, 1.0680-85 and 1.0700, sell orders are expected at 1.0720-25, 1.0745 and 1.0760, selling interest should emerge around 1.0780-85 and 1.0800. Option expires today include: 1.0600, 1.0700 (near 1 bln), 1.0720 (1 bln), 1.0750 (larg) and 1.0770 (near 2 bln).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy at 0.7115

As aussie has retreated after Friday's rise to 0.7250, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.7140-45 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.7110-15 would limit downside and bring another rebound later, above said resistance at 0.7250 would signal the erratic rise from 0.7016 low is still in progress and may extend further gain towards 0.7297 resistance which is likely to hold on first testing.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Stand aside

The single currency met renewed selling interest at 132.28 last week and has fallen again, dampening our near term bullishness and suggesting recent decline is still in progress, hence further fall to 130.45-50, then 130.00 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 129.40-45 (1.236 times projection of 141.06-133.31 measuring from 139.01), risk from there remains for a rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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