Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 11-4-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Kiwi Weighed Down by Poor Job Data

New Zealand dollar is under some pressure today after worse than expected job data. The job market contracted -0.4% qoq in Q3 versus consensus of 0.4% qoq. And, that's the first contraction in three years. Unemployment rate rose to 6.0% with participation rate falling sharply to 68.6% from 69.3%. Meanwhile, labor cost rose less than expected by 0.4% qoq. Last week, RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.75%, after three rate cut, but maintained an easing bias. There are speculations of another cut in December and the job data reinforced this view.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5176; (P) 1.5299; (R1) 1.5381; More...

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6587 resumed by breaching 1.5164 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.4990 support first. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 1.3671 to 1.6587 at 1.4785. On the upside, break of 1.5574 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline is expected even in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q3 6.00% 6.00% 5.90%
21:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q3 -0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.10%
21:45 NZD Labor Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q3 0.40% 0.50% 0.50%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Oct 32.50% 36.20% 35.10%
0:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Oct -1.80% -1.90%
0:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Sep -2.32B -2.85B -3.10B
0:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
1:45 CNY Caixin China PMI Services Oct 52 51 50.5
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Oct 41 40.6
8:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Oct 53.5 53.3
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Oct F 54.2 54.2
9:30 GBP Services PMI Oct 54.5 53.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Sep -0.50% -0.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep -3.30% -2.60%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 180K 200k
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Sep -1.90b -2.53b
13:30 USD Trade Balance Sep -$41.20b -$48.33b
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Oct 56.5 56.9
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.4M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped today and bids at 1.0980 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.0950 and 1.0920, buying interest is tipped at 1.0900, 1.0885 and 1.0850, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0830 and 1.0800. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0990-00 and 1.1025-30 and 1.1050, sell orders are expected at 1.1075-80, 1.1100 and 1.1130, selling interest is located at 1.1150, 1.1165 and 1.1180, mixture of offers and stops remains at 1.1200-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7250 or buy at 0.7080

Although the single currency has remained under pressure and near term downside risk remains for recent decline to extend weakness to 0.7100, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.7070-80 and bring rebound later. Above 0.7199 would bring recovery towards resistance at 0.7250 but upside should be limited to 0.7270-75, bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.3220

The greenback has rebounded after holding above support at 1.3056 (last week's low), suggesting consolidation with initial upside risk is seen and gain to 1.3190-00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.3235-40 would cap upside and bring another retreat later, below 1.3080 would signal the rebound from 1.3056 has ended, then the corrective decline from 1.3280 top may bring retracement of recent rise from 1.2835 (wave a trough) to 1.3000  but reckon support at 1.2935 would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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