Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 11-5-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Supported by Fed Yellen, BoE Super Thursday Watched

Dollar was supported by job data and Fed chair Yellen's comment and remains firm today. As Yellen testified before the House Committee, she expressed confidence over US economic developments. According to her, "at the moment what we see is a domestic economy that is pretty strong and growing at a solid pace, offset by some weakening spilling over to us from the global economy". The Fed has been expecting that the "economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market and to return inflation to our 2% target over the medium term". On the monetary policy, "if the incoming information supports that expectation then our statement indicates that December would be a live possibility". Rate hike "moving in a timely fashion - if the data and the outlook justify such a move - is a prudent thing to do because we will be able to move in a more gradual and measured pace".

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3064; (P) 1.3128; (R1) 1.3211; More...

USD/CAD was supported by mentioned 1.3039 minor support and intraday bias remains neutral. Overall, price actions from 1.3456 are viewed as a consolidation pattern and could extend. Below 1.3039 will start the third leg for 1.2830 and below. Above 1.3278 will target 1.3456 but we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to bring another falling leg to extend the consolidation.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BOJ Minutes for Oct. 6-7 Meeting
06:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Oct -19
07:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Sep 1.00% -1.80%
08:15 CHF CPI M/M Oct 0.00% 0.10%
08:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Oct -1.40% -1.40%
09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
09:10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI Oct 51.9
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.20% 0.00%
10:00 EUR European Commission Economic Forecasts
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 375b 375b
12:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 1--0--8 1--0--8
12:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9
12:00 GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct 93.20%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 262k 260k
13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q3 P 0.50% 3.30%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 P 2.00% -1.40%
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Oct 53.7
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 63B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has continued to trade lower but buy orders are still noted at 1.0900, 1.0885 and 1.0850, buying interest is tipped at 1.0830 and 1.0800, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0785 and 1.0750. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0950-60, 1.0980 and 1.1000, sell orders are expected at 1.1020-25 and 1.1050, selling interest is located at 1.1075-80 and 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7080

Although the single currency has continued to head south and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.7050 and bring rebound later. Above 0.7160-65 would bring test of 0.7199, break there would signal low is formed and then a stronger rebound towards resistance at 0.7250 would follow

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.3190

The greenback slipped again after brief bounce to 1.3165, bearishness remains for the fall from 1.3280 top to bring retracement of the rise from 1.2832 (wave a trough) and below 1.3038 would extend weakness to 1.3000 and possibly towards 1.3250-60, however, support at 1.2935 would hold from here and bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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