Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-4-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Surges as ADP Met Expectations

Dollar strengthens in early US session as employment data met expectation. ADP report showed 182k growth in private sector jobs in October. Trade deficit narrowed to USD -40.88 in September. Exports rose 1.6% to USD 187.9b while imports dropped -1.8% to USD 22.87b. Focus will turn to Fed chair Janet Yellen's testimony and ISM services. But EUR/USD might take out 1.0896 support as recent decline resumes. Released from Canada, trade deficit narrowed to CAD -1.73b in September.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0923; (P) 1.0977 (R1) 1.1017; More.....

EUR/USD is heading back to 1.0896 support but intraday bias remains neutral first. We're holding on the view that corrective rise from 1.0461 has already completed ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Break of 1.0896 will target 1.0807 support first. Break will pave the way for 1.0461 low. This will remain the preferred case as long as 1.1495 resistance holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q3 6.00% 6.00% 5.90%
21:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q3 -0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.10%
21:45 NZD Labor Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q3 0.40% 0.50% 0.50%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Oct 32.50% 36.20% 35.10%
00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Oct -1.80% -1.90%
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Sep -2.32B -2.85B -3.10B
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
01:45 CNY Caixin China PMI Services Oct 52 51 50.5
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Oct 41.5 41 40.6
08:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Oct 53.4 53.5 53.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Oct F 54.1 54.2 54.2
09:30 GBP Services PMI Oct 54.9 54.5 53.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Sep -0.30% -0.50% -0.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep -3.10% -3.30% -2.60%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 182K 180K 200k 190K
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Sep -1.73B -1.90b -2.53b
13:30 USD Trade Balance Sep -40.8B -$41.20b -$48.33b
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Oct 56.5 56.9
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.4M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has continued to trade lower but buy orders are still noted at 1.0900, 1.0885 and 1.0850, buying interest is tipped at 1.0830 and 1.0800, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0785 and 1.0750. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0950-60, 1.0980 and 1.1000, sell orders are expected at 1.1020-25 and 1.1050, selling interest is located at 1.1075-80 and 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9875

Dollar's rebound after holding above support at 0.9836 and the subsequent breach of indicated resistance at 0.9911 signal the pullback from 0.9958 has ended at 0.9836, hence bullishness remains for a retest of this level, above there would extend recent upmove to 0.9970-75, then towards psychological resistance at 1.0000 which is likely to hold

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Stand aside

As the single currency has remained under pressure after dropping from 1.1073, suggesting correction from 1.0897 has ended there and retest of this level would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.0870 and reckon 1.10840-50 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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