Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Action Insigh Mid-Day Report 6-30-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Greece to Miss IMF Repayment, Markets Steady

Markets are relatively much steady today awaiting further news from Greece regarding the bailout referendum on July 5. Euro is mildly softer against other major currencies but is staying well above Monday's low. European stays in tight right, fluctuating between gains and losses. Meanwhile, US futures point to a strong rebound after S&P 500 suffered the worst one day decline this year yesterday. Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said that the government won't make a EUR 1.54b payment to IMF due today, but they're hoping for a last minute deal with the international creditors. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also said that the door is open for further talks.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1034; (P) 1.1156 (R1) 1.1357; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we're favoring the case that corrective rebound from 1.0461 has completed at 1.1466 already. Another fall is expected and below 1.0954 will target 1.0818 support for confirmation. Break of 1.1436 will extend such rebound but in that case, strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810 to bring reversal.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M May 0.00% -1.70% -0.90%
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Jun 7 2 1
01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Jun -2.3 15.7
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y May 0.60% 0.70% 0.90% 0.70%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y May 5.80% 5.80% 0.40%
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jun 89.7 94 93.1 92.7
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jun -1K -7K -6K -5K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jun 6.40% 6.40% 6.40%
08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate May P 12.40% 12.50% 12.40%
08:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) (1Q) -26.5B -23.7B -25.3B -28.9B
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Apr 0.50% 0.50% 0.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate May 11.10% 11.10% 11.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jun 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jun A 0.80% 0.80% 0.90%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Apr -0.10% 0.10% -0.20%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Apr 5.00% 5.04%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jun 50.3 46.2
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Jun 96.7 95.4
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support at 1.1134 and has rebounded, however, offers are still noted at 1.1250 and 1.1275-80 (stops above), more selling interest is tipped at 1.1300-10, and 1.1340-50. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1130-35, 1.1100-15 (stops below) and 1.1075-80, more buy orders are expected at 1.1050-55, 1.1030 and 1.1000, buying interest should emerge around 1.0980 and 1.0960, fresh demand is located around 1.0930 and 1.0900.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.9390

Although the greenback has rebounded after finding support at 0.9244, yesterday's sharp retreat from 0.9429 suggests top has been formed there and reckon upside would be limited to 0.9390-00, bring another decline later, below 0.9270-75 would signal the rebound from 0.9244 has ended, bring test of this level, break there would extend weakness to 0.9210-15, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, price should stay well above support at 0.9151, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5800

As cable has rebounded after finding support at 1.5693, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and another test of 1.5789 resistance (yesterday's high) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon resistance at 1.5803 would limit upside and bring another decline. A break of said support would signal rebound from 1.5664 has ended, bring retest of this level, below there would extend the fall from 1.5930 to 1.5615-20

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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