Sunday, June 14, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 6-15-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Mildly Lower as Greek Talk Collapsed

Euro opened the week lower after the negotiation talk with Greece collapsed after just 45 minutes of meeting on Sunday. It's reported the European Union officials blamed the failure on Greece, which failed to offer anything new for securing the EUR 7.2b funding. A unnamed official was quoted describing the difference as an "ocean" instead of a "gap". It's believed that prime minister Alexis Tsipras refused to meet the demand on issues including pension cuts, tax hike and budget surplus target. Greece will need to repay EUR 1.6b to IMF by the end of the month. Some analysts noted that Greece could probably survive June and the biggest problem lies in July when it owes around EUR 3.5b in redemptions on bonds held by ECB. Eurozone financial ministers are expected to work on the issue on Thursday when they meet by there is little hope for a resolution so far. So far, weakness in Euro is limited as it's holding above near term support levels against other major currencies in general.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.17; (P) 138.74; (R1) 139.51; More...

EUR/JPY is mildly lower today as the consolidation from 141.04 temporary top continues. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment and deeper retreat could be seen. But still, as long as 136.95 support holds, another rally is expected. Above 141.04 will target 100% projection of 126.09 to 136.95 from 133.09 at 143.95. At this point, rebound from 126.09 is still viewed as a leg of the consolidation pattern from 149.76. Thus, we'd expect strong resistance above 143.95 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 136.95 support will argue that such rebound is finished and turn bias back to the downside for 133.09 support first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Jun 3.00% -0.10%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M May 0.10% -2.10%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y May -5.10% -5.20%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Apr -2.80%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr 19.0B 19.7B
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Apr -0.50% 2.90%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Jun 6 3.09
13:15 USD Industrial Production May 0.20% -0.30%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization May 78.30% 78.20%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 56 54
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found good support just above 1.1150 and has rebounded in NY morning, however, offers are still noted at 1.1250-60 and 1.1280, sell orders are reported at 1.1300, 1.1320 and 1.1335-40, selling interest should emerge at 1.1365, 1.1380 and 1.1400. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1170 and 1.1150, buy orders are expected at 1.1130 and 1.1100, buying interest is tipped at 1.1080-85, 1.1065 and 1.1050.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7200

Although the single currency fell briefly to 0.7196, as euro found support there and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 0.7290-00 but break of resistance at 0.7316 is needed to signal low is formed, bring further rise towards 0.7365, break there would confirm retreat from 0.7389 has ended, bring retest of this level later. Looking ahead, a break there is needed to extend the rebound from 0.7055 to 0.7420, then towards 0.7450

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.2350

Although the greenback has rebounded again and further consolidation above this week's low at 1.2202 is seen, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2355-60 and bring another decline, below 1.2270 would bring retest of said support at 1.2202, break there would extend the fall from 1.2563 (last week's high) for retracement of recent rise in wave ii, then weakness to 1.2150 would follow but 1.2100 would contain downside and 1.2050 should hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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