Friday, June 19, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-19-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Loonie Lower on Retail Sales, Euro Weighed Down by Greece

Canadian dollar weakens today on weak retail sales data in spite of stronger than expected inflation reading. Also, the Loonie is under some pressure as the greenback recovers. Headline retail sales dropped -0.7% mom in April versus expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.6% versus expectation of 0.3% mom. Meanwhile, CPI rose 0.6% mom, 0.9% yoy in May versus expectation of 0.5% mom, 0.8% yoy. BoC CPI core rose 0.4% mom, 2.2% yoy versus expectation of 0.3% mom, 2.1% yoy. USD/CAD dipped to as low as 1.2127 earlier this week after dollar was sold of post FOMC. But the pair is now back above 1.2280 and is heading back to 1.2360 near term resistance.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2184; (P) 1.2264; (R1) 1.2309; More...

USD/CAD recovers after dipping to 1.2127 and breached 61.8% retracement of 1.1919 to 1.2562 at 1.2165 briefly. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Fall from 1.2562 is still viewed as a correction only. Above 1.2360 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2562 resistance first. Break will extend the rebound from 1.1919 to retest 1.2834 high.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
03:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Apr 0.10% 0.30% -1.30% -1.40%
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M May 0.00% 0.20% 0.10%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y May -1.30% -1.10% -1.50%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Apr 22.3B 18.1B 18.6B 18.0B
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) May 9.4B 10.0B 6.0B 5.5B
12:30 CAD CPI M/M May 0.60% 0.50% -0.10%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y May 0.90% 0.80% 0.80%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M May 0.40% 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y May 2.20% 2.10% 2.30%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Apr -0.70% 0.50% 0.70% 0.90%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Apr -0.60% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support just below 1.1300 and has rebounded in NY morning, bids are still noted at 1.1285-90 and 1.1240, buying interest is tipped at 1.1220, 1.1200 and 1.1185, fresh demand should emerge around 1.1150, 1.1130 and 1.1100. On the upside, offers at 1.1340-50 were filled but sell orders are seen at 1.1375-80, 1.1400 and 1.1440-50, selling interest is located at 1.1475, 1.1500, 1.1530 and 1.1550.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5760

As cable has retreated after yesterday's rally to 1.5930, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would bee seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 1.5787) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous minor resistance at 1.5755 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above 1.5900 would bring retest of said yesterday's high of 1.5930

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.1295

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 1.1436 yesterday and consolidation below this level would be seen with mild downside bias for marginal weakness from here, however, reckon 1.1290-95 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above 1.1400 would signal the retreat from 1.1436 has ended, bring retest of this level and later towards previous resistance at 1.1467.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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