Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-23-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rebound Extends on as Greece Debt Deal in Sight

Dollar's rebound continues in early US session despite weaker than expected economic data. US durable goods orders dropped -1.8% in May versus expectation of -0.6%. Ex-transport orders rose 0.6% versus expectation of 0.8%. After all, the greenback, as well as stock markets, were supported by optimism of a Greek debt agreement finally. European indices are broadly higher with DAX up 1.35%, CAC up 1.36% and FTSE up 0.28% at the time of writing. US futures also point to higher open and NASDAQ would likely extend its record run. An interpretation is that Grexit was seen as a major risk in the financial markets. And any Grexit trigger turmoil would delay Fed's rate hike, as well as BoE's. Thus, with this risk near being cleared, markets expectations of divergent policy paths among central banks are moving back to normal. This could also be reflected in GBP/JPY's resilience as well as EUR/GBP's sharp fall.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1298; (P) 1.1353 (R1) 1.1396; More....

EUR/USD's sharp fall and break of 1.1204 suggests that rebound from 1.0818 has completed at 1.1436 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.0818 support. As noted before, rebound from 1.0461 is viewed as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0818 will suggest that such corrective rise is finished and will bring retest of 1.0461. Break will extend the larger down trend. In case of another rise, we'd continue to expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810 to bring reversal.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Apr -0.30% -0.10%
01:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q1 1.60% 2.10% 1.90% 2.00%
01:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jun P 49.9 50.6 50.9
01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun P 49.6 49.2 49.2
07:00 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jun P 50.5 50.1 49.4
07:00 EUR France Services PMI Jun P 54.1 52.5 52.8
07:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun P 51.9 51.5 51.1
07:30 EUR Germany Services PMI Jun P 54.2 52.9 53
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun P 52.5 52 52.2
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jun P 54.4 53.7 53.8
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Jun -7 3 -5
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders May -1.80% -0.60% -0.50% -1.00%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation May 0.60% 0.80% 0.50% -0.20%
13:00 USD House Price Index M/M Apr 0.60% 0.30%
14:00 USD New Home Sales May 513K 517K
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency tumbled today on dollar's broad-based strength in part due to hawkish comments from Fed official, bids at 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1185 and 1.1150 were filled but some buy orders are still noted at 1.1130 and 1.1100, buying interest should emerge around 1.1050-60 with stops building up below there. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.1200-10 and 1.1250, sell orders are reported at 1.1280-85, 1.1300 and 1.1320-25, selling interest is tipped at 1.1350, 1.1380 and 1.1400-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5810

As the British pound has fallen again on back of the selloff in euro, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.5930 (last week's high) to bring retracement of recent upmove and weakness to 1.5705-10 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5487-1.5930) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to support at 1.5681 and reckon 1.5655-60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1230

As euro's intra-day decline has gathered momentum and previous support at 1.1151 was penetrated, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.1436 earlier and bearishness remains for the fall from there to bring at least a strong correction of recent upmove from 1.0819, hence weakness to 1.1125-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0819-1.1436) and 1.1100 would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited and 1.1050-55 (previous support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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