Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Watch for These Stocks to Breakout Soon

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June 24, 2015

Watch for These Stocks to Breakout Soon

Tickers in this article: GOOG, ADBE, ACM, OAS

Stocks consolidate and trend, which means a breakout from a consolidation may be the start of another trending move. Often these breakouts occur in the direction of the prior trend (continuation patterns), but not always. Therefore, be ready for a breakout in either direction. These four stocks are currently consolidating and nearing breakout levels.

Google Inc. (GOOG)

Since May the price of Google Inc. (GOOG) stock has been moving between $521.01 and $544.19. This is a fairly small range when compared to the price action earlier in the year. A breakout to the upside provides a price target of $567.37, while a breakout to the downside gives a target of $497.83. Targets are attained by taking the height of the consolidation, $23.18, and adding or subtracting it from the breakout price based on the breakout direction.

Adobe Systems Inc (ADBE)

Adobe Systems Inc (ADBE) hit a high of $80.30 in February, and a high of $80.74 in May (unadjusted), highlighting a resistance area which the price is currently close to. This occurred following the price making higher swing lows since March, creating a triangle $8.18 in height. A breakout above $80.30 gives a target of $88.48. A breakout out lower is signaled by a breach of the rising trendline, currently intersecting at $75.50. The downside target is $67.32.

Aecom Technology Corp (ACM)

Aecom Technology Corp (ACM) has been trending higher since mid-January and since April has been consolidating in a slightly rising wedge formation. The pattern is $3.63 in height, as measured from the base/start of the wedge. A breakout higher occurred on June 19 when the price broke above the top of the pattern (slightly rising trendline) at $34.50. The price target for the breakout is $38.13. If the price reverses course, and breaks out of the bottom of the pattern--currently $33--the price target is $29.73.

Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS)

Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS) is moving within a narrowing range since February, yet the consolidation in price is especially noticeable since May. From May onward the price is moving within a triangle pattern. The high of the triangle is $18.15 and the low is $15.25; the height of the pattern is $2.90. A breakout above the resistance area at $18.15 provides a price target of $21.05. Since the price has been putting in higher swing lows in recent months, the lower trendline of the triangle is ascending. It marks the downside breakout point for the pattern, and that breakout point is currently $16.45. If the downside breakout occurs, the target is $13.55.

The Bottom Line

Chart patterns often look great in hindsight and foresight (as they are forming), but the breakouts don't always act as expected. The price could continue to move sideways resulting in multiple false breakouts, or it could fake traders out, breaking out in one direction and then quickly moving the other. A stop loss order placed on each trade helps limit the risk when events like this occur. Consider the risk/reward on each pattern before trading it as well. Based on the profit target and the stop loss, the trade should provide more potential profit than potential loss.

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Disclosure - At the time of writing, the author did not own shares of any company mentioned in this article.



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