Thursday, June 11, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-11-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Stay in Consolidations after Positive Data

Dollar stays in consolidative mode in general in early US session after a batch of positive economic data. Headline retail sales rose 1.2% in May versus expectation of 0.8%. Ex-auto sales rose 1.0% versus expectation of 0.7%. Import price rose more than expected by 1.3% mom versus consensus of 0.8% mom. Initial jobless claims rose 2k to 279k in the week ended June 6. The four week moving average rose 3.75k to 278.75k. Continuing claims rose 61k to 2.27m in the week ended May 30. The greenback attempted to recover earlier today but lacks follow through buying so far. From Canada, new housing price index rose 0.1% mom in April. Capacity utilization dropped to 82.7% in Q1.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.88; (P) 123.24; (R1) 124.04; More...

USD/JPY recovered after hitting 122.45 and breached 123.85 minor resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 125.85. But break there is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidative trading would be seen in near term. Meanwhile, below 122.45 will target 61.8% retracement of 118.88 to 125.85 at 121.54.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 3.25% 3.50% 3.50%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance May 34% 35% 33%
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q2 -6 3.2 2.4
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Jun 3.00% 3.60%
01:30 AUD Employment Change May 42.0K 15.2K -2.9K -13.7K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate May 6.00% 6.20% 6.20% 6.10%
05:30 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y May 10.10% 10.20% 10.00%
05:30 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y May 6.10% 6.10% 5.90%
05:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y May 11.40% 12.00% 12.00%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Apr 0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q1 82.70% 83.60% 83.60% 83.50%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales May 1.20% 0.80% 0.00% 0.20%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos May 1.00% 0.70% 0.10%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M May 1.30% 0.80% -0.30% -0.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 6) 279K 277K 276K 277K
14:00 USD Business Inventories Apr 0.40% 0.10% 0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 111B 114B 132B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency fell again in NY morning, bids at 1.1275-80, 1.1240-50, 1.1230 and 1.1200 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.1180-85 and 1.1150, buying interest is tipped at 1.1130 and 1.1100. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.1250-55 and 1.1285-90, sell orders are reported at 1.1300, 1.1320 and 1.1335-40, selling interest should emerge at 1.1365, 1.1380 and 1.1400, sellers are awaiting at 1.1430 and 1.1450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy at 137.40

Near term sideways trading is likely to continue and reckon upside would be limited to 140.00, initial downside risk remains for another corrective fall to 138.40-45, then 138.00-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 133.10-141.06), however, reckon 137.40-50 would limit downside and bring rebound later. Above 140.00 would bring test of resistance at 140.67 (yesterday's high) but break of last week's high at 141.06 is needed to confirm upmove from 126.09 (wave A trough) has resumed

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy at 0.7670

As aussie has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 0.7793, suggesting consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.7690-00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.7660-70 would limit downside and bring another rebound later, above said resistance at 0.7793 would extend gain to previous resistance at 0.7819 but break there is needed to bring retracement of the fall from 0.8163 to 0.7840-50, then towards 0.7880

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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