Thursday, June 25, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-25-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Forex Trading Muted, Greece Watched

Movements in the forex markets are muted today. There is some weakness in the Swiss franc against euro and dollar today but such weakness is limited. yen also attempted to rebound on risk aversion. On the hand hand, dollar is staying in tight range in general. In US, initial jobless claims rose 3k to 271k in the week ended June 20, inline with consensus. The four week moving average dropped to 273.75k, down from 277k. Continuing claims rose by 22k to 2.25m in the week ended June 13. Personal income rose 0.5% in May, incline with expectation. Personal spending rose 0.9%, much stronger than expectation of 0.6%, the highest reading since August 2009. Headline PCE was unchanged at 0.2% yoy while PCE core was also unchanged at 1.2% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.59; (P) 123.98; (R1) 124.25; More...

USD/JPY is staying in range of 122.45/124.43 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. The consolidation from 125.85 is still in progress and could extend further. Above 124.43 will bring retest of 125.85 but firm break there is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, we'd likely see more corrective sideway trading. Below 122.45 will target 61.8% retracement of 118.88 to 125.85 at 121.54.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul 10.1 10.1 10.2
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Jun 29 32 51
12:30 USD Personal Income May 0.50% 0.50% 0.40%
12:30 USD Personal Spending May 0.90% 0.60% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M May 0.30% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y May 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M May 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y May 1.20% 1.20% 1.30%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 20) 271K 271K 267K 268K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 89B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to trade narrowly and offers are still noted at 1.1235-45 and 1.1280, more sell orders are reported at 1.1300 and 1.1330, selling interest is tipped at 1.1350 and 1.1365. On the downside, some bids are seen at 1.1150-55 and 1.1130 (stops below 1.1120), buy orders are expected at 1.1100, 1.1080 and 1.1050, buying interest should emerge around 1.1030 and 1.1000.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5800

As the British pound has rebounded after holding above yesterday's low at 1.5667, suggesting near term upside risk remains for retracement of this week's selloff, hence gain to 1.5780 and possibly towrads resistance at 1.5803 cannot be ruled out but reckon upside would be limited and bring retreat later, below said support would signal decline from 1.5930 top has resumed for weakness towrads 1.5615-20

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1265

As the single currency has recovered after finding support at 1.1154, retaining our view that further consolidation above this week's low at 1.1135 would be seen and recovery to 1.1235 is likely, however, reckon upside would be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 1.1273) and bring another decline later, below said minor support at 1.1154 would bring retest of 1.1135, break there would extend the fall from 1.1436 to 1.1125-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0819-1.1436) and then 1.1100

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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