Saturday, June 27, 2015

Action Insight Weekly Report 6-28-15

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Greece Drama to Continue as Tsipras Called for Referendum

Euro ended last week broadly lower, together with Swiss Franc, on endless Greek debt negotiations. The drama stepped up to another level as Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras announced on Saturday to hold a referendum on whether to accept the demands of the international creditors. The date for the vote will be on July 5 which is after the deadline of June 30 when Greece is required to repay EUR 1.5b to IMF. Eurozone finance ministers are supposed to meet on Saturday to discuss an extension of bailout program to Greece till November. But it's reported that after the announcement of referendum, Germany has decided not to support the extension. It's viewed by some analysts that even if Greece fails to repay IMF on June 30, it wouldn't be considered a "default" technically. But now, EU leaders are believed to be seriously considering a so called "Plan B" and the uncertainty will only increase with time before the vote. Euro would most likely stay pressured.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP's decline from 0.7388 extended lower last week. There is no clear sign of bottoming yet even though downside momentum is diminishing. Initial bias remains on the downside for 0.7013/54 key near term support zone. We'd be cautious on reversal fro there. On the upside, above 0.7210 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7388 and above. Overall, it's uncertain on whether the sideway consolidation pattern has completed yet. But in any case, we'd expect any upside attempt to be limited by 50% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.7013 at 0.7510 and downside breakout is anticipated.

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