Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-16-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Lower on ZEW, Greece Stalemate

Euro is generally lower against other major currencies as weighed down by the deadlock in Greece debt talk and weak economic sentiment data. On the other hand, Sterling was lifted by cross buying as well as inflation data that was inline with expectation. Dollar is mixed after release of housing data. From US, housing starts dropped to 1.036m annualized rate in May. Building permits dropped to 1.100m. Both were below market expectations. The movements in the forex markets are so far limited and traders would likely remain cautious ahead of tomorrow's FOMC statement and projections.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5520; (P) 1.5566; (R1) 1.5646; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.5169 continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.5814 resistance first. Break will resume the rally from 1.4565 to 61.8% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.6187. At this point, we're slightly favoring that the rebound from 1.4565 is a correction. We'd expect strong resistance around 1.6187 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, below 1.5420 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.5169 support.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Apr $53.9B $22.5B $17.6B $25.6B
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
05:45 CHF SECO June 2015 Economic Forecasts
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M May F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y May F 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y May 0.10% 0.10% -0.10%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y May 0.90% 1.00% 0.80%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M May 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y May 1.00% 1.10% 0.90%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M May -0.90% 0.60% 0.40% 1.40%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y May -12.00% -11.30% -11.70% -11.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M May 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y May -1.60% -1.60% -1.70%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M May 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y May 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q1 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jun 62.9 63 65.7
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jun 31.5 37.3 41.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jun 53.7 60.3 61.2
12:30 USD Housing Starts May 1.036M 1.10M 1.14M 1.165M
12:30 USD Building Permits May 1.100M 1.11M 1.14M
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Apr 12.94B 5.03B 22.50B 22.56B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly after finding support at 1.1189, offers are still noted at 1.1260, 1.1280 and 1.1300, more sell orders are reported at 1.1320, 1.1340 and 1.1365, selling interest is tipped at 1.1380 and 1.1400. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1200-05 and 1.1185, buy orders are expected at 1.1150, 1.1130 and 1.1100, buying interest should emerge around 1.1080-85, 1.1065 and 1.1050.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5515

Although cable has risen again after intra-day brief retreat to 1.5542 in part due to active cross-buying in sterling and gain to 1.5660-70 cannot be ruled out, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 1.5700, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place soon.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 123.50

The greenback has continued to trade in familiar range and further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as Friday's high at 123.82 holds, prospect of another decline remains, below support at 123.12 would extend weakness to 122.95-00 but break there is needed to signal the rebound from last week's low at 122.46 has ended at 124.16 (exactly 50% Fibonacci retracement of 125.86-122.46), bring further fall towards said support at 122.46.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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